Tidbits from a different normiechat (the 40-hour workweek)

Is this true? Soliciting opinions.

Approximately true, with some caveats. The 40-hour workweek was Henry Ford’s invention. After studying the productivity of his workers he learned it went down when they worked more than 40 hours. He was also famous for paying his workers enough to live well on a single income, so women were generally not in Ford’s workforce at all, but rather providing their family’s childcare, errands, etc. There were services provided to the employees who lived in the suburb-like utopian housing projects that Ford built for his employees, but the idea of paying for out-of-home childcare certainly didn’t exist at the time. Middle class people often had servants, but it’s important to keep in mind the middle class was quite smaller and different then, and could be compared to low millionaires today AKA the upper middle class.

The last bit, reassuring people, is basically misleading because the 40-hour workweek isn’t a major source of stress by itself and most people can handle it, provided they aren’t trying to balance other large responsibilities like being the primary caregiver to children or other jobs (as the commenter says). The real reasons most people are stressed out in the workforce today are more complicated but can be summed up by saying they routinely make bad life decisions and blame the outcomes on other people to guilt society into political concessions, as we see here.

Most people in America struggle because our society is very poorly managed, and I would argue maliciously so. A big reason people here make unwise decisions is that they’re encouraged to by authority figures and all the cultural products they consume. Most of our institutions are either feckless or downright predatory, with college and student loan debt being a notable example. So if I were going to reassure people, it would be by saying that our society is structured to ruin their lives. However, I’d also caution them that it takes two to tango and “you can’t con an honest person”, so they also need to accept their part of the responsibility for believing the lies they were told and making bad life decisions like going to college.

One of my sisters added:

The 40 hour workweek was set up by Henry Ford back when women stayed home. As women gradually entered the workforce over the last 50 years in particular, real wages (adjusted for inflation) steadily declined due to increase in labor supply. This has resulted in most families needing two incomes to afford increasing costs of living, and increasing levels of burnout amongst those working.

In many industries now, you may be expected to work 60-80 hours but earn a salary based on 40. Millennials, who ruin everything 🤔, have delayed marriage, children, buying a home, in part because of this reason.

If you are having a hard time, you are not a failure.

I present a series of interesting charts

https://wtfhappenedin1971.com

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A sex difference that requires either greater fame or greater scrutiny

Under stress women become more extraverted and empathetic, whereas men become more introverted and even less competent at cognitive empathy tasks. Women will immerse themselves in social activities and men will retreat to solitude.

Unfortunately I don’t remember where I stumbled across this, so I don’t have any juicy blockquotes to back this up and could even be misremembering. A bit of searching around yielded these, at the very least:

Social buffering of human fear is shaped by gender, social concern, and the presence of real vs virtual agents

Stress Makes Women More Empathetic, Men More Self-Centered

I know how it makes me look to continue suggesting this, but I consider this support for my recent theory that higher education is a narcissistic boyfriend simulator for women, the female equivalent of men masturbating to porn.

A brief aside: I’m trying to think of what the equivalent [of men and boys needing to use up their physiological energy playing/working] is for women, some form of emotional energy. Something about how they need to be kept mentally busy trying to satisfy logistically difficult demands from other people. I think spending their emotional energy on worrying about pragmatic concerns like “can I get this kid’s bath done before the chicken burns” keeps them grounded.

“Can I get this garden looking decent enough to take some good photos before the end of the growing season?”

“How can I have my parents over for the weekend while the bathroom is getting remodeled?”

Balancing a million healthy concerns, basically, mind always racing. Otherwise they’ll get the idea of going back to school and getting a Ph.D. Higher education is to women as fapping is to men. Not even joking. They both have childlessness as a direct effect and have the same cause: inappropriate release of masculine and feminine sexual energy.

https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2022/10/22/the-fourfold-way-of-effortless-nofap/

Please drop a note if you know anything about the topic I can follow up on, the normies have ruined Google.

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Social intelligence stratification as a potential factor in the autism epidemic

High intelligence means you go to college, then the IQ shredder cities, and then don’t have any children. But there’s a nuance in this process I haven’t seen discussed elsewhere: social intelligence is vastly favored. For example, the whole brain drain thing passed me over back in my very early twenties, and I can quite comfortably assert it was for lack of social intelligence. To give you an idea, I went off to the ROTC equivalent of boot camp having never watched a movie about boot camp or read a book about it, and let’s just say it was a culture shock for someone who was expecting a bit of exercise and maybe some training for fighting wars. It was real autism hours up ins. Turns out it’s a lot of standing around and shouting in between making your bed over and over, a very odd experience if you’re expecting something else.

So anyway, that relationship didn’t work out. It serves as an extreme case in what I suspect is a general phenomenon where social intelligence is the most highly preferred sort of intelligence in the modern world, mainly (I suspect) because the punishments for breaking social rules have become so extreme over time. Here’s a quote to reiterate the point, because why not:

The most important and the most highly paid form of intelligence in America is social intelligence, the ability to get along well with other people. Fully 85 percent of your success in life is going to be determined by your social skills, by your ability to interact positively and effectively with others md to get them to cooperate with you in helping you to achieve your goals.

Learning how to develop md maintain superior human relationships can do more for your career and for your personal life than perhaps anything else you can accomplish.

The bad news is that the inability to get along with others is the primary reason for failure, frustration md unhappiness in life and work. According to one study, more than 95 percent of men and women let go from their jobs over a ten-year period were fired because of poor social skills rather than lack of competence or technical ability.

According to psychologist Sydney Jourard, most of your joy in life comes from your happy relationships with other people, and most of your problems in life come from unhappy relationships with them. Most of your problems in life are people problems.

Fortunately, you can become extremely skilled at getting along with others, and in this chapter, you will learn how.

– Brian Tracy, Maximum Achievement

So what happens to the high-IQ autistic weirdos? They don’t get vacuumed into the IQ shredder cities, so they just stay put where they are, like the old days before cognitive stratification. We know they don’t breed directly, generally speaking, but could they be contributing positively to kin selection?

One of the problems with the stratification process is that when cognitive problems come up out in the countryside no one smart enough to fix them is around anymore. In the old days if you had a thousand people in one place and the printer broke you’d have someone around with a one-in-a-thousand IQ who could make the printer go brrrr again. Nowadays that guy goes off to the IQ shredder cities and the country bumpkins just go back to the old ways of writing everything down in crayon, or more realistically just not writing anything down anymore.

But if you have a high-IQ autistic weirdo around, and the problem is serious enough that you can put up with the discomfort of talking to him, then you always have the option of your printer going brrrr again. Now, armed with your beautiful printouts and copies, you can survive and reproduce at higher rates than the other country bumpkin towns with their pathetic flyers traced with crayon on paper held up to their computer screens (disgusting!). Country towns that have a higher rate of autistic genes will produce more autistic children, therefore also produce more high-IQ autistic men, and will therefore have a smart fraction that doesn’t get hoovered up like the other country towns’ socially competent smart fractions do. So you’d expect more autism over time. There’s also a feedback effect where populations that tend higher on the autistic quotient have better relationships with the people with outlier AQ, so they’ll get better bang for their buck.

Please note this is just a factor like it says in the post title, I’m sure other things like overdiagnosis are also factors.

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The psychology behind fans ruining the things they like

There’s a rant I do fairly often in person that hasn’t made it to the blog yet about how fans of fantasy tend not to understand what it is they like about fantasy. Take Star Wars for example, which is a thinly veiled story about a white knight who pulls a magic sword out of a rock, saves the princess from a cave, kills a dragon, and becomes king of the round table. It’s a good story, told well, and it’s inspiring because it tells us something about the person we sense on the inside we’re supposed to become as grown-ass adults.

The way this normally works is you watch the movie about saving the princess from the dragon’s cave and the next day you think to yourself “Being an adult feels lonely, it feels sort of like if my house was burned down and my aunt and uncle were dead and I can never go back to the way it was. I should learn how the world works and go get a girlfriend and take on big challenges and make something of myself.” This moment of epiphany comes with a feeling of catharsis that gets you moving, and it probably never occurs to you this was all the story’s idea, because you’re too busy with normal adult shit now.

Something I’ve noticed over and over is that when I get nostalgia for something and it lasts for more than a few days, then my subconscious is trying to tell me something and it thinks the fastest way to communicate the epiphany is through the source of the nostalgia. For example, the last few weeks I’ve had this song stuck in my head for no reason:

I have no doubt that if I replayed the ancient aliens flying continent Atlantis section of Chrono Trigger it would trigger something in me that would probably become a blog post. We all process this shit in our own ways, mine just happens to be one that helps you pass time on the shitter.

The problem with “fans”, as a group, is that they never extract the insight from the story that allows them to move on, emotionally. They’re stuck in the part where they’re longing for the epiphany, but for whatever reason they lack the introspective ability or courage to actualize it. It’s the equivalent of masturbation and results in arrested development. So their subconscious minds keep bringing them back to lightsabers and Chrono Trigger soundtracks and their conscious minds mistakenly conclude these accoutrements are the real reason they love the story, rather than the subconscious understanding that the story is telling them something they desperately need to hear.

Being fans with arrested development, they feel the need to become one with these accoutrements, as if returning to the womb. To “create”, except always shy of real cathartic expression, which means an unholy blend of imitation and self-expression. This means force-fitting the world on which they’ve fixated into their small-souled personalities, in whatever particular form of arrested development that takes. If they have the personality of an accountant, they turn Star Wars into a portfolio management simulator called Eve Online. If they have the personality of a mechanical engineer, they imagine factories using lightsabers as precision cutting equipment. Normies will reimagine space opera with drugs, swearing, and unnecessary dysfunction where people express their individuality by breaking petty social rules.

If you remember my rant about gamers being bad people, you may recognize this as the general case where that was the particular case. You have to be a special kind of retarded to turn a story about magic swords into an open-world sandbox where people trade derivatives on magic sword factory futures. Yes, I realize that if we start with the world-building axioms and follow the economic logic for long enough there would probably be derivatives in space, but the thing is THAT’S NOT HOW MYTHS WORK YOU FUCKING FUCK!!!11

Listen, the point of lightsabers isn’t that they’re economical. The point is it’s a magic sword because deep in the better and smarter part of your brain, your lizard brain, you want something analogous to a magic sword because you realize you need to grow the fuck up. Faggot.

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Interpreting AI national villain stereotypes

AI interpretations of supervillains according to nationality.
You could probably have fun with this given your TV Tropes knowledge
Interesting that the Scot has the fencing sabre and not a big fuck off William Wallace sword
Clearly the whole thing is loaded with biases and assumptions, and this is AI’s current interpretation of TV tropes pertaining to racism and TV trope interpretation.
So there’s a lot to unpack here and I know you’re the guy.

– Patrick

I’d want to redo the list, with maybe the exception of Mexico. The Finland one is great but I don’t know their culture.
They don’t make much sense as villains from an internal perspective or external.
Like, if it were a villain as Americans see villains it would be a Nazi, and if it were a villain as non-Americans see America as a villain, it would be the CIA-industrial complex (i.e. Armstrong from Revengeance).
If it were a villain in the way Americans would LARP as villains in a humblebragging sort of way, then “nouveau riche” faux English industrialist could work. But that’s more aspirational.
Like Fussell says, the American upper middle class are huge anglophiles.
In fact, that’s the best summary of these. These are representations of how people flatter themselves that they’d be villains.
With Greece being the easiest example.

So it’s very internet.

Yes.
Very Marvel.

I think the Turks would probably be pissed off that they’re goblins, but they’d probably be flattered by the mysterious dark Babylonian powers infered also.

Greece: “If I got pissed off and went evil I’d be in the gym every day gettin’ fuckin’ jacked amirite Vinnie.”
Note also: hairless body. Definitely aspirational.

And the Greeks would also be flattered to be enemies of the Babylon goblins, that’s just 300 right there.
I think Wales, Scotland and Nigeria are most intriguing.
Wales is clearly Arthurian Legend, Scotland’s one pertains to the depiction of the Marquis of Montrose in Rob Roy the movie (which is not true, the Marquis of Montrose was very based, a little effeminate, but in a Prince sort of way) and the Nigerian one seems to pertain to some sort of Atlantean spider matriarch.

Prompt: If I got super pissed I would become…
Japan: “Dark samurai, a being of pure discipline and will.”

The American one is just ‘Skull Knight as The Joker’ which is very Marvel.
But it is very Military Industrial Complex, so props for that.

Turkey: Descartes’s evil trickster, a creature of Byzantine machinations.
So the way to interpret this is to list all the flattering adjectives that could be used to describe the villain pictured, and that’s the nation’s answer to the prompt.

Agent of misfortune and syndicated activity.

USA: Rich. Classy. Gangster. Pragmatic. Probably a social Darwinist. Etc.

So what’s the Scottish one then? That one I don’t understand.
Because it makes sense to me, but in a roundabout and quite contextual way.

Trans.

🤣
Youre right!
Very good!

I was joking, but I’m glad there was truth in it.
I see deadly precision, mostly.

I was reading all the way into it and you just looked at the SNP manifesto lol
That’s how we’re trained for sure

Single-minded focus, vengefulness.
Very blood feud vibes.

Yeah that’s about right.

Call it Nemesis for short.

Well anyway let’s discuss more on our next call. Because before the Thal server went quiet, AI was very much the chatter.
And in these pictures there’s a hell of a lot to unpack.

Yeah, I guess it feels obvious to me because of my thal privilege. We must unpack it all with autistic work ethic and bring this boon to the people.

Yeah there’s a whole plethora of AI bias here: from the info that’s being fed to it, to how it’s processing that info to show people what they think they want to see

This is what you get when an artist is playing to Likes, which is the same thing as training an AI.
The opposite of edifying.

https://tenor.com/view/painting-the-scream-edvard-munch-gif-17469906
Yup. Art is about being an artist first and foremost, and if AI usurps that, then God will smite humanity imo.
God is going to smite us all if we fuck this up. Big time.

But then, people in desperate search of wisdom can find it in a landfill.
Socrates said that.

And Diogenes lived that, I suppose.

I’m less enamored of hippies than you are, but there’s truth in it

And Socrates without Diogenes is like hamburgers without fries, or a bacon and egg with no juice, and we can’t have that.

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Owl convo (loosely) re: Elon Musk shenanigans

might as well touch on the musk stuff
since it’s pulp drama for the masses and it part of the back and forth of letting the different tribes in america feel like they’re getting a win every once in a while

That’s my baseline assumption. I also observe that Elon Musk is a proper psychopath, and not the harmless nerd he presents as.

in the aspie subtype, not the financial raider type, but agreed

Disagree, I don’t think he’s an aspie at all.
It’s POSSIBLE he’s both an aspie and a psychopath, but honestly it’s an old, old trick for psychopaths to pretend they have a bit of Asperger’s.
Enough that it’s really bad for the rep of autistic people in general. I’d present Zuckerberg as an example of actual aspiepath, and Musk doesn’t give off the same vibe of real social dysfunction.

a fair point
compare zuck’s sexual success with musk’s

I’d compare the aspie typecasting strategy to the pretense of billionaires of “coming up from nothing”.
“compare zuck’s sexual success with musk’s”
Exactly what I was thinking of.
That and Zuck’s presidential aspirations being completely laughable, even to ordinary people who daydream about how they’d live if they were billionaires. Musk’s presidential aspirations would be an actual threat, hence he doesn’t even whisper them.
Among Americans who worship financial success, you’d think there’d be one or two who would look up to the Zuck as a hero.
I expect Musk paid to have an image created for him, like Warren Buffet paid a marketing agency to create his public persona as “Joe Everyman” eating big macs and drinking diet cokes.

“Nerd Excellence” was clearly the initial brand
Once you get the space stuff in there, you get away from the nerd a bit which increases the mainstream appeal
people who are into space are nerdy, but big powerful machines have a traditionally masculine appeal

Now his brand is Heath Ledger’s Joker or Deadpool, which are real popular with Kids These Days.

yeah, basically
with the twitter stuff he’s moved into full on “agent of chaos billionaire”
definitely an image you can sell to people

It hits all the Last Man’s buttons.

whereas the zuck is a weird-looking guy who dresses poorly and has a frumpy wife. not aspirational
^yep
an ideal candidate for…whatever it is that is trying to be accomplished
which brings us back to the framing: enemy of the people or secret savior?

So you’re on board with the idea that Musk’s antics are scripted by someone.
The questions remaining are who and why.

technically speaking, i wouldn’t say scripted, but nitpicking about relative levels of control/organization/whatever is an academic distinction for us since we’re nowhere near the action
i floated last week that what he’s doing is basically a clean-up for the events of the three-year 2020, and this feels right to me
whether that is the ultimate goal, a step along some kind of path, or just a consequence of an entirely different project is not clear
i do think the idea that he wants to turn twitter into wechat but for the non-chinese world is a reasonable guess

My initial guess is that his purpose is to eat up news cycles.

lol

In sports terms, wasting time to run the clock out.
The analogy isn’t perfect because TPTB aren’t going for ultimate victory so much as “forever war” and continual consolidation while keeping the clock going.
I think if you’re TPTB then getting people highly engaged with any non-event for as long as possible is an unmitigated good.
In specific motivation terms…Banned Hipster did a series on the provenance of the Paypal mafia, but I don’t remember who bankrolled them.
Nor what their essential philosophy is. Thiel’s book was pretty good, but it doesn’t tell me what Musk’s philosophy probably is.
Or I should probably say fixations, because when you’re talking about psychopaths long-form thought trains aren’t on the table.
But even psychos have a course of development where they pick up ideas about what sorts of things it feels good to have and do.
In the case of my previous boss, he’s been spending his adult life paying for the “entrepreneurship experience” as Boneflour called it.
And, I suspect, cocaine.

lol
is that not part of the experience?

In his generation, absolutely.

[Doxxy digression.]

I don’t know if what I have would be properly described as an inferiority complex, but I definitely have a chip on my shoulder about something.
It could be something as simple as not getting laid while under the influence of healthy testosterone production.
But even if I were getting laid several times a day I think I would still sperg out about how everyone in the world is wrong about everything and by all appearances they’re doing it on purpose just to piss me off.
THAT’S NOT HOW YOU SPELL THAT
YOU COULD HAVE LOOKED THAT UP AT ANY MOMENT IN THE LAST 50 YEARS OF YOUR LIFE
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA
I have daydreams about watching incompetent medical professionals kill me in slow motion by making unforced errors.
I’m reading the label on the bottle as they put the injection in the IV and they’re joking to the other nurses about how they’re so good they don’t even read the labels anymore.
It’s mostly anger that no one is kicking asses that are in sore need of kicking.
We should beat random people on general principle. I feel like when parents accidentally spank the wrong kid and are like “eh, he probably did something to deserve it”. That’s how I feel about people.
So that’s Elon Musk.

spanker or spankee?

I’d have him spanked on the grounds that he probably did something to deserve it. Builds character.
Maybe he would get attached to the spanker as a father figure, who knows how psychos process paternal abandonment.

now that’s a line of research that could lead to other insights…

According to Dr. Dutton, spanking has different effects by race.
It’s possible psychopaths react to it in the same way as blacks.
Generally speaking, my line has been that you aren’t allowed to have a billion dollars without getting a knock on the door from intelligence.

and let’s not forget musk is a massive DoD contractor

Yeah, so we shouldn’t be under the impression that he’s a rogue actor.

exactly

I have some copypasta for this…

When you have that much money and influence, the mafia knocks and offers you the choice to work with them or be destroyed. You aren’t allowed to have a billion dollars and be a private citizen, it’s too dangerous for the powers that be to let potential competitors accumulate power.

My neighbor explained that in Mexico his relative had a strawberry farm, and the cartel offered him “gold or lead”. He picked gold, and every harvest season some strawberries would go missing and he’d get an envelope of cash. Not a bad deal, the cartels know how to run a country properly. With Twitter it’s basically the same, just a bit more abstract. Gold or lead.

The problem we have here is our “cartels” don’t want our country to run properly because they feel like it’s not their home. The better off we are, the more it’s like having a bunch of rich billionaires running around doing whatever they want, and potentially competing with their real home country in Israel.

If you have a billion dollars, you can buy an army or a nuke. If you have “turf”, it’s bad practice to let someone on your turf have a nuke and continue existing.

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2023 Goals

1. Graduate in December.

Bonus:

1a. Graduate summa cum laude. (Just means no big screwups)

1b. Raise GPA to 4.15. (Hard)

Subgoals:

1c. Finish operating systems HW before class begins.

1d. Finish networking HW before class begins.

2. Get a job offer from [internship employer].

I’ll have to put on a good show at my internship this summer. This is the main reason I want to finish the networking class homework ahead of time, because that class is supposed to be tough and I’m hoping to take it in the summer during the internship.

3. No late nights!

That means no staying up past midnight. I’m just plain done with that shit at this point in my life. It’ll be tough because students and coders both have a cultural expectation of staying up late EVERY night, because students and coders are the dumbest people on the planet. Silver and bronze medals, respectively:

3a. Less than 10 late nights.

3b. Less than 30 late nights.

Secondary goals

  • Nofap (Or less than 10, less than 30, respectively.) Subgoal: Listen through the EasyPeasy audiobook quarterly to keep my brainwashing up to date.
  • Exercise: I’m switching this one over to a pipeline, because I’ve been making ground on everything steadily just by sticking to my comfy routine. And there are a bunch of leftover exercise goals from previous years. So instead of doing a list of goals for this year, I’ll just do my routine and focus on one goal at a time. Right now I’m focusing on getting my max deadlift up to 420 (blaze it). After that, I’ll focus on hitting the 250×5 bench press. When I hit that, I’ll pick a new focus from the list.
  • Write “Why I’m a Christian” post. For some reason I got it into my head that it needs to be good, so I’ve been slow-boiling it for a while with the hope of having no fat on it. It’s been decades since I was big into apologetics, so I’ll need some review.
  • Read John Seymour book that I got for Christmas, “The New Complete Book Of Self Sufficiency”. It’s mostly overview, but I need the overview because I don’t know what I don’t know.
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Re: The Glory of Christmas (musical show)

There’s a megachurch in the metro Detroit area that puts on a big show every year called The Glory of Christmas. It’s a big production. We’re talking pyrotechnics, live orchestra, and curtain dancers. They bill it as evangelism, and the idea is that members of the church buy the tickets and invite people. It sells out pretty quick.

The first half is all standard Americana like Santa and Christmas carols with dancers dressed as reindeer and Santa’s sleigh flying in on cables over the audience, that sort of thing. The second half they do the Christmas story up through Easter and the resurrection. Then the pastor comes on before the final act to explain that Christmas is about Easter, and we should keep that in mind when appreciating the nativity scene. This is the big evangelism part, where he prays and asks anyone who’s willing to pray for salvation along with him.

Mixed feelz. To summarize my feelings, I think it’s a good thing on the whole and I’m glad they’re doing it, with the caveat that it’s giving them a big head and the hubris is likely to come back to haunt them. The pastor said at one point, paraphrasing: “You didn’t think church could be like this, huh? This is church how it’s meant to be.” Aside from the unbearable Boomerness of being, he’s just wrong. At best, he’s exaggerating for effect, but that would still be poisoning the minds of his flock. He gets a zero on the assignment for that thesis.

First I’ll do the negative feelz re: the explicit reason for the show, then positive feelz re: the unspoken, real reason for the show.

In terms of evangelism, I note that my hosts invited me, a decades’ long family friend from a small church (that no longer exists) and their kids and grandkids. Their kids are all Christians with varying levels of religiosity or, in one case, a convert to Mormonism (probably for pragmatic reasons). That’s a sample size of one…but they’re pretty dead-on center typical for megachurch attendees. Which is to say quite pious in their personal lives, but more interested in church as a consumer experience than as an obligation to other people. I heard someone say on a podcast yesterday that the central tenet of Western liberalism is “no unchosen obligations,” which I think is correct. That’s certainly descriptive of the way people actually live and act. “If I feel obligated, it must be a consumer experience which expresses my sense of taste and social class.”

Returning to the evangelism question, I think it’s a big excuse to do the show. You could do better evangelism with the same money, in my opinion, although you might not be able to raise the same amount of money or get the same effort from the megachurch audience. When I say “effort” I’m referring to the fact that everyone involved in the production is associated with the church, from the singers to the wire dancers and orchestra. Think Hillsong church, where they work on this big show all year.

I think the bait-and-switch between the Santa show and the Christian show feels a bit cynical…but maybe that’s just me…and maybe I’m not being cynical enough! Is it having a positive, nonzero, non-negligible effect on evangelism efforts?…Probably. It’s hard to put myself in the shoes of a typical 110-IQ middle class Boomer friend of some other Boomer who invited them. I suspect they’re preaching to the choir, in the main, but there may be some stragglers. I worry that on the flipside they may be turning some people cynical.

There’s an extent to which big displays of money need only say “This is the dominant religion in this culture, this is what normies believe.” Lord knows that’s worked for undermining Christianity. I can’t tell you how many millions of young people have gone apostate for no reason other than the TV told them to with high production values. And we’re talking real shifts in true belief, I think. High-religiosity churchgoing kids still want people to like them, maybe even moreso than average, and the Schelling point in our culture is Superbad.

Now then, for some less negative talk, let’s talk about it as a pure expression of culture.

In terms of culture, it’s notable that the show itself is VERY good. I cry at movies pretty easy, so take this with a grain of salt, but they got me multiple times. The highs were high, the lows were low, and the talent was on point. It was certainly a nonstop feast for the senses and the emotional rollercoaster was well-constructed. It may not have hit quite as hard for someone who’s watching gore-porn sixteen hours a day while doing mind-altering substances to make it more intense, but I’m not a complete stranger to spectacle and I’d sign off on it as a nascent artfag.

The interesting part is how this is apparently the only way you can get conservatives to create big cultural productions in the modern day, so this constitutes the meat of the mixed feelings. This is why I say “it’s a good thing on the whole and I’m glad someone’s doing it, but…” Now that the internet right has gone all postmodernist, we cry and moan about how no one is creating big expensive cultural set pieces like this, so here we have a megachurch doing that. Should we turn up our noses because they’re being great big Boomers about it? I don’t think so.

The reason I make a big deal out of the hubris of it is I see the seeds of its own destruction in it. Is it possible to create conservative culture any other way in modern America than by pooling the money and talent of a megachurch under the guise of evangelism? Honestly, I think the proof is in the pudding–you don’t see it anywhere else, therefore no. I could make a lengthy, elaborate argument from the various demographics, their talents and capital, and the correlation with their values, but it would come out to the same thing. The sort of people who have the unusual mix of conservative values, artistic personalities, grassroots funding, and the capacity to work together for an entire year on such a large project are going to come together in this way. (Specifically in modern America, I mean. We could talk about how it could be done in the future, or how it was done in days of yore among people who may as well have been a different species, but right now you guilt normies into buying tickets for their already Christian children to fund the production and then congratulate them on their evangelism. Is it really lying if your audience is retarded? Well, yes, and that’s why it’ll collapse in a big fireball eventually.)

In many ways it’s like the original cathedrals. Is it really an expression of Christian values? No. Was it produced by a megalomaniac manipulating a bunch of retards who haven’t heard or spoken a truthful word since the age of four? Yes. Would it have been possible with any other population than highly religious Christians trying to do their best with what little understanding they’ve managed to pull together between wage-cucking and drinking sessions? No. Et cetera et cetera. But on the whole, I’m glad the cathedrals exist and someone’s building one. Or restoring one, or whatever analogy you like here.

Another good comparison is TempleOS. Terry Davis may have been a schizophrenic degenerate, but by golly I’m inspired by TempleOS as a coder. For those of you who aren’t aware, TempleOS was an engineering accomplishment comparable to building a space-worthy rocket in your backyard by yourself. As far as I can tell, he made all of the correct design decisions up front. Terry Davis described himself as God’s chosen programmer, and if we lay aside our biases we have to admit the evidence points to him telling the truth. God grant me a tenth of that talent and drive. TempleOS stands out as a light on a hill among coding accomplishments, and I can appreciate that in spite of everything else.

I guess what I’m saying about the big Christmas show is “God bless their autism.”

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Feeling “motivated” is fundamentally ideological (to the idealistic AKA k-selected personality)

This truth has been the big impression on me of the last couple of years. As I alluded in the inattention post, I was expecting prolonged effort on something I don’t want to do (college) to wear me down. A big problem with being disagreeable is that compliance-type tasks are draining, even if you see them as a means to an end you actually want. But the main problem is that, college being a big conscientiousness filter, it sucks up all of your bandwidth and demands more (like a narcissistic boyfriend simulator). This leaves no time to remind yourself why you’re doing it (hence my emphasis on audio recordings of visualizing the outcomes I want).

Let’s imagine someone who works what we internet types would consider a “dirty job”: grinding up plastic at a recycling center. There’s a great bit on this at the beginning of an R.A. Salvatore book:

The Grind

Whrrrr!

The noise was deafening, a twenty-horsepower motor spinning eight heavy blades. It only got louder when a chunk of scrap plastic slipped in through the creaking hopper gate and landed on that spinning blur, to be bounced and slammed and chipped apart. In mere seconds, the chunk, reduced to tiny flakes, would be spit out the grinder’s bottom into a waiting barrel.

Gary Leger slipped his headphones over his ears and put on the heavy, heat-resistant gloves. With a resigned sigh, he stepped up on the stool beside the grinder and absently tipped over the next barrel, spilling the scrap pieces out before him on the metal table. He tossed one on the hopper tray and pushed it through the gate, listening carefully as the grinder blades mashed it to ensure that the plastic was not too hot to be ground. If it was, if the inside of the chunks were still soft, the grinder would soon jam, leaving Gary with a time-consuming and filthy job of tearing down and cleaning the machine.

The chunk went straight through, its flaky remains spewing into the empty barrel beneath the grinder, telling Gary that he could go at the work in earnest. He paused for a moment to consider what adventure awaited him this time, then smiled and adjusted his headphones and gloves. These items were his protection from the noise and the sharp edges of the irregular plastic chunks, but mostly they were Gary’s insulation from reality itself. All the world—all the real world—became a distant place to Gary, standing on that stool beside the grinder table. Reality was gone now, no match for the excitement roused by an active imagination.

The plastic chunks became enemy soldiers—no, fighter jets, variations of a MiG-29. Perhaps a hundred of the multishaped, dark blue lumps, some as small as two inches across, others nearly a foot long, though only half that length, lay piled on the table and inside the tipped barrel.

A hundred to one, both bombers and fighters.

Overwhelming odds by any rational estimate, but not in the minds of the specially selected squadron, led by Gary, of course, sent out to challenge them.

An enemy fighter flashed along the tray and through the hopper gate.

Slam! Crash and burn.

Another one followed, then two more.

Good shooting.

Work blended with adventure, the challenge being to push the chunks in as fast as possible, to shoot down the enemy force before they could get by and inflict damage on your rear area. As fast as possible, but not so fast as to jam the grinder. To jam the grinder was to be shot down. Crash!

Game over.

Gary was getting good at this. He had half the barrel ground in just a couple of minutes and still the blade spun smoothly. Gary shifted the game, allowed for a bit of ego. Now the enemy fighters, realizing their enemy, and thus, their inevitable doom, turned tail and ran. Gary’s squadron sped off in pursuit. If the enemy escaped, they would only come back another time, reinforced. Gary looked at the long line of chunk-filled barrels stretching back halfway through the large room and groaned. There were always more barrels, more enemies; the reinforcements would come, whatever he might do.

This was a war the young man felt he would never finish.

And here was a battle too real to be truly beaten by imagination, a battle against tedium, against a day where the body worked but the mind had to be shut down, or constantly diverted. It had been played out by the ants of an industrialized society for decades, men and women doing what they had to do to survive.

It all seemed so very perverted to Gary Leger. What had his father dreamed through the forty-five years of his working life? Baseball probably; his father loved the game so dearly. Gary pictured him standing before the slotted shelves in the post office, pitching letters, throwing balls and strikes. How many World Series were won in that postal room?

So very perverted.

Gary shrugged it all away and went back to his aerial battle. The pace had slowed, though the enemy still remained a threat. Another wide-winged fighter smashed through the creaking gate to its doom. Gary considered the pilot. Another man doing as he had to do?

No, that notion didn’t work for Gary. Imagining a man being killed by his handiwork destroyed the fantasy and left him with a cold feeling. But that was the marvel of imagination, after all, for to Gary, these were no longer pilot-filled aircraft. They were robot drones—extraterrestrial robot drones. Or even better, they were extraterrestrial aircraft—so what if they still resembled the Russian MiGs—piloted by monster aliens, purely evil and come to conquer the world.

Crash and burn.

“Hey, stupid!”

Gary barely heard the call above the clanging din. He pulled off the headphones and spun about, as embarrassed as a teenager caught playing an air guitar.

Leo’s smirk and the direction of his gaze told Gary all that he needed to know. He bent down from the stool and looked beneath the grinder, to the overfilled catch barrel and the pile of plastic flakes on the floor.

“Coffee man’s here,” Leo said, and he turned away, chuckling and shaking his head.

Did Leo know the game? Gary wondered. Did Leo play? And what might his imagination conjure? Probably baseball, like Gary’s father.

They didn’t call it the all-American game for nothing.

Gary waited until the last banging chunks had cleared the whirring blades, then switched off the motor. The coffee man was here; the twenty-minute reprieve had begun. He looked back once to the grinder as he started away, to the piled plastic on the dirty floor. He’d have to pick that up after his break.

Victory had not been clean this day.

The conversations among the twenty or so workers gathered out by the coffee truck covered everything from politics to the upcoming softball tournament. Gary walked past the groups, hardly hearing their talk. It was too fine a spring day, he decided, to get caught up in some discussion that almost always ended on a bitter note. Still, louder calls and the more excited conclusions found their way through his indifference.

“Hey, Danny, you think two steak-and-cheese grinders are enough?” came one sarcastic shout—probably from Leo. “Lunch is almost an hour and a half away. You think that’ll hold you?”

“…kick their butts,” said another man, an older worker that Gary knew only as Tomo. Gary knew right away that Tomo and his bitter group were talking about the latest war, or the next war, or the chosen minority group of the day.

Gary shook his head. “Too nice a day for wars,” he muttered under his breath. He spent his buck fifty and walked back towards the shop, carrying a pint of milk and a two-pack of Ring Dings. Gary did some quick calculations. He could grind six barrels an hour. Considering his wages, this snack was worth about two barrels, two hundred enemy jets.

He had to stop eating so much.

“You playing this weekend?” Leo asked him when he got to the loading dock, which the crew used as a sun deck.

“Probably,” Gary spun about, hopping up to take a seat on the edge of the deck. Before he landed, an empty milk carton bopped off the back of his head.

“What’d’ye mean, probably?” Leo demanded.

Gary picked up the carton and returned fire. Caught in a crosswind, it missed Leo, bounced off Danny’s head (who was too engrossed with his food to even notice), and ricocheted into a trash bin.

The highlight of the day.

“I meant to do that,” Gary insisted.

“If you can plan a throw like that, you’d better play this weekend,” remarked another of the group.

“You’d better play,” Leo agreed, though from him it sounded more as a warning. “If you don’t, I’ll have him”—he motioned to his brother, Danny—”next to me in the outfield.” He launched a second carton, this one at Danny. Danny dodged as it flew past, but his movement dropped a hunk of steak to the ground. He considered the fallen food for a moment, then looked back to Leo.

“That’s my food!”

Leo was laughing too hard to hear him. He headed back into the shop; Gary shook his head in amazement at Danny’s unending appetite—and yet, Danny was by far the slimmest of the group—and joined Leo. Twenty minutes. The reprieve was over.

Gary’s thoughts were on the tournament as he headed back towards the grinding room. He liked that Leo, and many others, wanted him to play, considering their interest a payoff for the many hours he put in at the local gym. He was big and strong, six feet tall and well over two hundred pounds, and he could hit a Softball a long, long way. That didn’t count for much by Gary’s estimation, but it apparently did in many other people’s eyes—and Gary had to admit that he enjoyed their attention, the minor celebrity status.

The new skip in his step flattened immediately when he entered the grinding room.

“Now you gonna take a work break?” snarled Tomo. Gary looked up at the clock; his group had spent a few extra minutes outside.

“And what’s this?” Tomo demanded, pointing to the mess by the catch barrel. “You too stupid to know when to change the barrel?”

Gary resisted the urge to mouth a sharp retort. Tomo wasn’t his boss, wasn’t anybody’s boss, but he really wasn’t such a bad guy. And looking at his pointing hand, with three fingers sheared off at the first knuckle, Gary could understand where the old plastics professional was coming from, could understand the source of the bitterness.

“Didn’t teach you any common sense in college?” Tomo muttered, wandering away. His voice was full of venom as he repeated, “College.”

Tomo was a lifer, had been working in plastics factories fully twenty years before Gary was even born. The missing fingers accentuated that point; many older men in Lancashire were missing fingers, a result of the older-design molding machines. Prone to jams, these monstrosities had a pair of iron doors that snapped shut with the force (and appetite, some would say) of a shark’s jaws, and fingers seemed to be their favorite meals.

A profound sadness came over Gary as he watched the old man depart, limping slightly, leaning to one side, and with his two-fingered hand hanging freely by his side. It wasn’t condescension aimed at Tomo—Gary wasn’t feeling particularly superior to anyone at that moment—it was just a sadness about the human condition in general.

As if sensing Gary’s lingering stare, Tomo spun back on him suddenly. “You’ll be here all your life, you know!” the old man growled. “You’ll work in the dirt and then you’ll retire and then you’ll die!”

Tomo turned and was gone, but his words hovered in the air around Gary like a black-winged curse.

“No, I won’t,” Gary insisted quietly, if somewhat lamely. At that point in his life, Gary had little ammunition to argue back against Tomo’s cynicism. Gary had done everything right, everything according to the rules as they had been explained to him. Top of his class in college, double major, summa cum laude. And he had purposely concentrated in a field that promised lucrative employment, not the liberal arts concentration that he would have preferred. Even the general electives, courses most of his college colleagues breezed through without a care, Gary went after with a vengeance. If a 4.0 was there to be earned, Gary would settle for nothing less.

Everything according to the rules, everything done right. He had graduated nearly a year before, expecting to go out and set the world on fire.

It hadn’t worked out quite as he had expected. They called it recession. Too pretty a word, by Gary Leger’s estimation. He was beginning to think of it as reality.

And so here he was, back at the shop he had worked at part-time to help pay for his education. Grinding plastic chunks, shooting down enemy aircraft.

And dying.

He knew that, conceded that at least that part of Tomo’s curse seemed accurate enough. Every day he worked here, passing time, was a day further away from the job and the life he desired, and a day closer to his death.

It was not a pleasant thought for a twenty-two-year-old. Gary moved back to the grinder, too consumed by a sense of mortality and self-pity for any thoughts of imaginary battles or World Series caliber curve balls.

Was he looking into a prophetic mirror when he gazed upon bitter Tomo? Would he become that seven-fingered old man, crooked and angry, fearing death and hating life?

There had to be more to it all, more reason for continuing his existence. Gary had seen dozens of shows interviewing people who had come close to death. All of them said how much more they valued their lives now, how their zest for living had increased dramatically and each new day had become a challenge and a joy. Sweeping up the plastic by the catch barrel with that beautiful spring day just inches away, beyond an open window, Gary almost hoped for a near-death experience, for something to shake him up, or at least to shake up this petty existence he had landed himself into. Was the value of his life to be tied up in memories of Softball, or of that one moment on the loading dock when he had unintentionally bounced a milk carton off of Danny’s head and landed it perfectly into the trash bin?

Tomo came back through the grinding room then, laughing and joking with another worker. His laughter mocked Gary’s self-pity and made him feel ashamed of his dark thoughts. This was an honest job, after all, and a paying job, and for all his grumbling, Gary had to finally admit to himself that his life was his own to accept or to change.

Still, he seemed a pitiful sight indeed that night walking home—he always walked, not wanting to get the plastic colors on the seats of his new Jeep. His clothes were filthy, his hands were filthy (and bleeding in a few places), and his eyes stung from the dark blue powder, a grotesque parody of makeup, that had accumulated in and around them.

He kept off the main road for the two-block walk to his parents’ house; he didn’t really want to be seen.

R.A. Salvatore, The Woods Out Back

Let’s imagine two different ideologues working this job: a Pagang Nazi and a 16th century English peasant. The Nazi is going to have a rough time because everything he’s doing is going against his most fundamental values: it’s un-aesthetic, all that plastic feels unnatural, it’s boring and anti-romantic, the job is an expression of out-of-control capitalism, and the whole time he’s stuck thinking “this existence should not exist”. Even if he’s earning a living for the express purpose of donating the excess money to party politics, he’s going to dread getting up in the morning. The English peasant, on the other hand, believes that life is suffering and Jesus particularly loves the poor and downtrodden, so when he goes to church on Sunday he feels like the Bible is talking about him personally. His downtrodden-ness is dignified. Even if he’s not moving toward a greater goal that’s particularly Christian, he’s not going to be all that bothered by the nature of the job itself.

I think the effect of ideology on motivation levels is massively overlooked in social science. It’s usually chalked up to IQ (the ability to be motivated by future payoffs), personality type (conscientiousness in particular), and social capital (AKA trust). But it’s impossible to ignore the fact that the most motivated people on earth are ideological fanatics, and they are often low-conscientiousness men produced by very low-trust environments with unremarkable IQs. Normally, we see ideological people as more driven because they tend to be engaged in anti-pragmatic expressions of their ideology like playing dress-up and hand-to-hand street fighting. These are energizing activities because it’s very easy to make the emotional connection between the activity and the ideology. Even if they don’t have any practical effect, you’re living as your best possible self according to the value system you’ve internalized. You are become the man from the propaganda poster.

(Non-ideological people, on the other hand, are motivated by concrete things like eating good food, raising children, using drugs, or using power, and tend to be more shortsighted AKA r-selected, fast-life history strategists.)

Uh…this is the part where I’d write a concluding paragraph about how long-sighted ideological people maintain their sense of dignity through prolonged stupidities like coding apps for technically challenged rich people who don’t know their ideas are profoundly unrealistic. Except the only thing I know how to do is drop classes to raise my bandwidth so I can think clearly about why I’m putting myself through this bullshit. Do we have any heroes of time preference we can look to? The only one I can think of is Adam Smith from Myth of the 20th Century, and to be honest that’s probably just a personality/conscientiousness thing and he isn’t very ideological by nature. All the ideologues I can think of are unbalanced kamikaze pilots trying to go directly from A to B with no intermediary steps. You can tell the difference by the realism of their long-term plans (“where do you see yourself in five years?”) and, hopefully, the achievement of previous goals on a similar timescale.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t connect this to my working definition of moral courage:

the willingness and capacity to do and continue doing the right thing when it’s hard and no one is supporting you, and not fall into vices as a side effect

A good scientific definition of “hard” here would be psychological mismatch.

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Slightly more detailed 2023-2024 predictions discussion

Any luck thinking of your thing yet?

it’s gone to the winds
if it ever comes back i’ll write it down
it breaks the pattern of long walks to write down ideas when you have them but perhaps i should bite the bullet and get in the habit

Writing things down so important.

agreed. much easier to do so when one is already at a desk though

“it breaks the pattern of long walks to write down ideas when you have them but perhaps i should bite the bullet and get in the habit”

I have a trick for this. When you hit about five trains of thought you write down very brief anchor words in your phone.
Five is about the limit of my recall for that sort of thing.

ooooo…that’s a good one

Merry Christmas.
All right, ambitious prediction time.

I have enough confidence in our ability to pick out the dominant factor in a social phenomenon that we should be able to see about three steps ahead if we put in the effort. For an example of picking out the dominant factor, one of my normies recently asked if old people in Europe dying would be enough to cause unrest. I said “No, people fear being targeted more than they like old people.”
So we should be able to then map out the slippery slope and the eventual reaction by picking out the next dominant factor, and maybe the reaction to the reaction.
More than that, I think secondary factors will generally build up too much.
For an example playground, let’s restrict ourselves to GOP politics.
What happens next in the dumbest possible world?

trump wins the republican nomination on being the toughest on russia and the most pro-vaccine stance
call it “hyper-normie”
well, that couldn’t technically happen next year
are we restricted to just things possible in the next 12 months?

Not sure what’s an appropriate timescale.
If we’re shooting for three iterations…let’s say 8-month intervals leading up to the election.

works for me

I think what they do in the next 8 months is short-term economic pillaging (re: inflation, economic unrest) plus doubling down on distracting social issues.
The latter serves the former, so I’m basing this on the belief that the overriding concern of the ruling class is their sudden loss of profitability via stonks.
They couldn’t possibly make long-term decisions at this point, so they’ll do shorter-term cash grabs than before using the same toolkit as before because it’s all they know. The political side simply exists to enable this by suppressing peasant revolts.
And nothing will really matter to the election cycle until the very end anyway, because memories are short.
That means the 8 months following will be characterized by anger and stupidity, in that order.
The best contender for stupid social issues is black people shit and sex shit. People have shown no end of appetite for those so far.

trans is like the perfect storm of getting people worked up

I wonder if at some point it will be de facto illegal to talk about the state of the economy, as in insta-bans for saying “Covid” on YouTube, that sort of thing.
That feels likely.
Like insta-bans for saying “Shadowstats”.

yes, i can see a future where inflation officially recedes but unofficially stays hot, and youtube videos and whatnot thta mention it get “fact-checked”
still, this feels less likely to me

Yeah, it’s more of a stretch than saying this year will involve short-term pillaging and distraction.
The insta-bans are more likely a 2025, 2026 kind of prediction.

working to put my finger on why but i’m leaning towards two things: 1. slow inflation is less inflammatory than locking people in their homes and coercing them into taking new medical treatments and 2. there’s no longer a unified front for narrative control
hmmm…this is believable

How do you figure re: no. 2?

a full-scale war a few years down the line would be grounds for similar dramatic moves as the covid years

Right, it’ll be on the horizon, but locking everyone in their homes will put it off for 6 months, which is all the ruling class ever did.
It’ll be worse, but it’ll be LATER.

fair. climate change stuff might be a good avenue for it if they can get that momentum going
re 2, i do believe that whatever musk is really up to, he does represent to some unknowable but probably tangible degree, a split of some kind

You’re an optimist.

maybe. i’m not saying there’s NO chance that he’s just part of the coverrup for all this covid stuff

Oh, speaking of narrative control, I have an audiobook recommendation…
https://www.amazon.com/CIA-Organized-Crime-Illegal-Operations-ebook/dp/B01NAPBE60

he will, after all, have a big say in what the final narrative of all this is, and that’s a lot of power
still, it does look like he’s burning some bridges that will make it a lot harder to run some of the playbook in the future

We should do Musk as a topic unto himself, I have a bit to say there.
On the financial front, I expect that large corporations will be unwilling to accept the loss of their stonk profit centers (to the tune of 40% growth year-over-year or whatever crazy number it’s been lately). Just as likely, they’ll be UNABLE to absorb the loss.
So I predict bailouts will have to make up the difference, just direct payments from the government to keep the biggest companies afloat (particularly the more publicly visible ones and the most Jewish financial ones). Maybe that’s what’s already happening.
That means higher inflation than 2022.
That means a HUGE portion of the population is unable to make rent around Christmas next year.
We may actually hit hyperinflation by early 2024. I hope not…but that’s where this line of thought is taking me.
We may see stimulus checks become the major political topic of the election…I may even say “probably”.
That would be the normal reaction to the threat of peasant revolts.

it’s usually either that or calling out the gendarmes
but defunding the police really takes that option away…not that it ever actually happened but there are personnel shortages lots of plcaes
one could always call out the national guard, of course
but that’s also expensive, the military isn’t meeting their recruitment numbers, and if there is war fear in the next year, you don’t want to tie up your forces like that

“one could always call out the national guard, of course”

Right, TPTB are still quite capable of applying force when it serves them.

still, lot of assumptions in that comment. that’s guesswork, not analysis

Are you talking foreign war?
I don’t think that’s on the table in a serious way.

probably not in the timeframe we’re talking about

Lockheed will take a bailout if they get mad.
We’ll probably see an acceleration in the military purges though.

russia-ukraine has escalation risks but it sure looks to me like neither side wants to really ratchet it up
yeah, DIE stuff still has strong momentum

If you put the remaining military, national guard, and police forces together after all the purges and resignations, it’s still enough to be a police force.
Should probably actually run the numbers on that at some point…
Call that another topic.

they rescinded the vax mandate but i doubt they’ll be reinstating anyone, and they’ll find ways of administratively punishing anyone who still hasn’t been shot up
yeah, that needs a numeracy check
mathematical literacy: the grim reaper of ungrounded ideas

I think inflation is going to go from a big concern for smart people to an overriding concern for all people, so that’s the dominant factor of the next couple of years to which everything else will be a reaction.
We may even see the Taiwan invasion.
Hell…Russia might win the war in Ukraine.
We’ll drag this process out as long as we can and make it as bad as we can, so it’s not the end yet.
But TPTB may actually find themselves, for the first time in their lives, having to choose between two things that they want.
That will be interesting to watch from a distance, if nothing else.
May need to catch up on Sam Vaknin videos.

I’m more inclined to suggest that even unofficially, the rate of inflation will slow, but we’ll also have to contend with more frequent failures of infrastructure and this will be a more significant stressor [Ed: That was the American Sun take also, https://theamericansun.com/2022/12/30/predictions-and-links/%5D

I may go out on a limb and predict China-Taiwan war in 2024. There are only two things holding it back: 1) American consumers buying from China, and 2) American military intervention.

see power failures in various counties the past couple months, grocery stores being out of stock of random items…etc

https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2022/12/28/the-evernight-2

more like “general direct impacts of standard of living”
russia might still win in ukraine but depends on your definition of “win”

Talking about this in terms of Maslow’s hierarchy…how stubborn do you think various demographics are about competing for higher things as lower things become a concern?

I would say they win if they 1) hold eastern ukrainian territory, 2) achieve ukrainian demilitarization, and 3) keep ukraine out of nato

‘russia might still win in ukraine but depends on your definition of “win” ‘

Who gets to write the history books.
Admit it, that’s a great definition :-).

Pyrrhic victories are a thing
Yep, agreed lol
re: maslow that’s a fun question
self-actualization seems a young people thing…old people seem to give up on it entirely

You know what’s silly, I’ve never given myself a quick list of demographic identifiers for analysis.
E.g. Class, race, age, sex, religion, political views, IQ, big 5, etc.
I mean, I’ve gotten great mileage from MBTI in my personal life (particularly the functional analysis), but I don’t know that I’ve ever thought of “extraverted intuition” as a demographic.
Anyway, that aside, here’s a quickie list of demographics:
(We should argue over what are the best general predictors.)

  • IQ
  • Race
  • Class
  • Age
  • Sex
  • Religion
  • Personality (big 5)
  • Education
  • Life history strategy
  • Political orientation
  • Particular disabilities: mental illness, alcoholism, etc.
  • Income

For some reason I want to rank these in terms of predicting who’s most likely to attack you.
Anyway, add basic police-type stats and you’ve got a pretty good profile of a person.

lol

Oohhh…I just realized you might be able to backward engineer Amazon’s consumer model by scraping the suggestions they give you.
I got kinda lost in thought for a minute there.
Stamina ain’t what it used to be. I blame Christmas eating.
Yeah, I’m getting distracted. It’s about time to wrap up.
We can improve on our performance next time.

we’re also out of practice haha

Re: backward engineering, I think the math would end up being the same as IQ and big 5. It’s just cluster analysis…and I think that area is called structural equation modeling.
Like everything else, I’ve always wanted to waste some time learning that.
Someone needs to just pay me for existing.
That would solve a lot of problems.

gentleman scientist status confirmed
we must conslut the history books to identify your past life

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