Specifics (ebola again)

Well, I have to bump my estimate of the probability of an outbreak again. I’m riding at about 10% chances these days, which should be enough in actuarial terms to send most sane folks (all IQ > 150 and some below) to their bunkers. Ballpark 10 million dead (one in thirty) if it gets out in the states, plus a couple of new 3,000-page laws will get overnighted through Congress. (10% chances on 10 million dead is *nearly* the same to an actuary as a 80% chance of 1 million dead.)

Anyway, I’m a plebe, and plebes should plan to be down in the muck and mess. Fortunately, healthy thal living has given me a demigodlike immune system, which will hopefully give me better than 25% odds (depending on the particular strain I catch). When is too soon to catch it, and when is too late?

Because I’m depending on functioning hospitals (plan B is my brother and roomie- I’ve briefed him), I’m going to say roughly the same time as the epidemic metastasizes. I intend to be Case #2 in Minnesota, if possible. Metastasis means the jig is up. Fortunately, I work with a bunch of Liberians, so I probably won’t even have to change my daily rountine :-P.

Same thing if anywhere in the continental Kwa hits 1,000 cases, maybe even just 100. That shit’s getting out, nothing to do at that point but pray. For now, prep.


About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
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6 Responses to Specifics (ebola again)

  1. Heaviside says:

    When I hear the thunderclaps at the end of “the Pastoral” I think of fuel-air explosives going off in New York and D.C.

    Worse is better! I remember when Lenin responded to objections against the deliberate starvation of tens of millions of the peasantry by calling them “sugary sentimentality”. The Left has been a bit too eager to abolish morality for its own good. Now everything is permitted! Who can name a single politician who doesn’t deserve to be sent to Kolyma via boxcar? It’s said that at the height of the Terror the whole of Paris was covered in blood an inch deep. Us, the few, the proud, the vanguard party, will sail a little swan dinghy(our ark) to the end of history on a tidal wave in an endless ocean of blood.

    What is National Socialism? The finale of Bruckner’s 4th.

  2. hyper says:

    The logistics of that many contagious patients demanding US premium-level healthcare are staggering.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      If you’ve ever worked in healthcare, it’s pretty obvious how that’s going to shake out. Imagine a half-staffed restaurant on the busiest night of the year, stuffed with all the world’s most obnoxious customers. And then do that for six months straight, 30-hour shifts.

      By that point, no one will have a functioning immune system, if only due to the stress. This is accounted within my strategy.

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