Well, I have to bump my estimate of the probability of an outbreak again. I’m riding at about 10% chances these days, which should be enough in actuarial terms to send most sane folks (all IQ > 150 and some below) to their bunkers. Ballpark 10 million dead (one in thirty) if it gets out in the states, plus a couple of new 3,000-page laws will get overnighted through Congress. (10% chances on 10 million dead is *nearly* the same to an actuary as a 80% chance of 1 million dead.)
Anyway, I’m a plebe, and plebes should plan to be down in the muck and mess. Fortunately, healthy thal living has given me a demigodlike immune system, which will hopefully give me better than 25% odds (depending on the particular strain I catch). When is too soon to catch it, and when is too late?
Because I’m depending on functioning hospitals (plan B is my brother and roomie- I’ve briefed him), I’m going to say roughly the same time as the epidemic metastasizes. I intend to be Case #2 in Minnesota, if possible. Metastasis means the jig is up. Fortunately, I work with a bunch of Liberians, so I probably won’t even have to change my daily rountine :-P.
Same thing if anywhere in the continental Kwa hits 1,000 cases, maybe even just 100. That shit’s getting out, nothing to do at that point but pray. For now, prep.