The logic of plausible deniability (applied to Game)

Plausible deniability is probably the dominant factor in the sum total of social interactions. I once defined Game as “kino escalation with plausible deniability”, and I still think this is a pretty good summary. (In retrospect, I’d add a little bit of agency on the girl’s end of things, expressing the scale of her desire to be seduced. Probably in a way analogous to the gravitational constant or something, because I’m a thard :-P.) Warfare is conducted under the auspice of plausible deniability because the true psychological aims of war are generally at odds with the stated, self-conscious aims of the average ground-pounder. And those are just the two most important examples.

Anyway, what is plausible deniability? When a man takes a girl’s hand and says he’s going to read her palm, he may or may not have the eventual intention of sleeping with her. This first breach of her comfort zone is either due to his hidden intent, or it’s all in good fun. He certainly claims it’s all in good fun, and it is believable in either case (unless he says it quickly and apologetically- by this he would betray the dirty state of his mind). Leaving aside self-deception for the moment, we see that there are two actors in play: A, the man, and B, the woman. Each has a certain state of knowledge about the situation, based on their individual perceptive qualities, and we will simplify this by saying merely

B(x) or “B knows that x is true”
~B(x) or “B doesn’t know that x is true”
B(~x) or “B knows that x is not true”
~B(~x) or “B doesn’t know that x is not true”

This is a recreation of doxastic logic, which has apparently been around for a bit, so I won’t go into much detail here except to state that plausible deniability from A to B occurs whenever A(x) and ~(B(x)), which includes all three of the latter cases above.

A(x) and ~B(x), A knows x and B doesn’t.
A(x) and B(~x), A knows x and B has concluded otherwise.
A(x) and ~B(~x), A knows x and B is off in la-la land.

I’d like to translate this into the vocabulary of conditional probability, although it must be stressed that this is far from a scientific treatment of the situation.

When I say that B(x), I am assuming a certain relation between B’s perceptions of reality, and B’s ability to draw inferences in the way I’ve recently described. Summary: “The sensations of my eyes and ears are interpreted as a fire truck, which is to say a large, red, truck-like vehicle with ladders and a siren”. This is a lot like in mathematical regression, where we see a pattern in some data and think “that looks like an exponential function with a little bit of noise on it” and thereafter choose to apply exponential regression rather than linear regression. I’m not really up on things, but it seems we’re still generally better at this than computers, presuming we have previously assimilated the necessary forms (exponential curves and linear regression lines and such).

Okay, back to what approaches reality around these parts.

Say that B is receiving the set of sensory information S. This may be interpreted according to pre-existing forms (analogous to the exponential curve above) f and g, where f is “seduction attempt” and g is “we’re all just having a good time”. The probability P of form f given S has a certain value, which may or may not trigger the belief x, depending on the certainty required by the girl to think she “knows” what’s going on. In symbolic terms, this is P(f|S). If P(f|S) is much greater than P(g|S), then the girl may spurn the awkward seduction attempt in order to avoid feeling like a slut. That’s the essence of plausible deniability.

Bringing the whole thing around to be hopelessly esoteric, plausible deniability fails when B(x) because P(f|S) >> P(g|S).

We can make this even more complicated by adding a third party to the interaction: the audience :-D. This is because the girl is concerned with whether the community at large thinks she’s a slut. So, add some of the girl’s friends to your visualization of the situation at hand, and I’ll recapitulate. The man is reading the girl’s palm and in doing so has trespassed, ever so slightly, on her physical space. The girl’s friends look for her reaction- is she reacting as if it’s all in good fun, or is she giving off the tell-tale body language of sexual arousal? Again, even if the girl wants to be seduced she must put on an act (it’s all in good fun) to maintain the plausible deniability that she is not a venal creature who will sleep with a stranger for passing pleasure. She must do this even if the seduction is awkward and easily perceived by her friends, because at the worst she’ll be seen as stupid rather than slutty. “He was trying to seduce me? How funny! I never even noticed.”

This latter case illustrates plausible deniability from A and B directed toward C, the group. A(x) and B(x), but ~(C(x)).

About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

16 Responses to The logic of plausible deniability (applied to Game)

  1. Craig says:

    You can tell by the look of the girlfriends if they approve of you or not… Usually they’ll give you a sultry stare when the woman of your affections is looking the other way…

    If the girl friends don’t approve, they will block your advances in the typical fashion.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      In which case I shall explain the logic of the situation, so as to impress upon them my intelligence and therefore the superiority of my genes. I always carry a whiteboard whilst “sarging” for precisely this purpose.

      • Craig says:


        I could wear my old dirty lab coat or my kilt… and be your assistant wing man.

      • Craig says:

        Probably a modern day hermeticist with the back up of Science and a little experience… :-)

        My patriarchal line of family put highwaymen in jail…That in itself adds more to the mystique… :-) So highwaymen dunna scare me.

        Black and white.

        Chaos and Order.

        For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

        Out of the chaos, the pattern appears, those who can see, shall bring order.

        :-) I’m weird I know…

      • Craig says:

        I guess I’ll just have to remember a password or re-join NH and show my ugly mug, and prove that I’m no that weird, but relatively normal. Though I do think differently.

        I’ll not talk to you here if you’re really not comfortable…

      • Craig says:

        Cool, I wasn’t sure.

        I don’t like upsetting people is all.

  2. Craig says:

    Re-read your article again… All these PUA talk of kino… Gamma this Alpha that. Most PUA I believe have an Alpha/Gamma complex, the gamma comes out in projections. It’s what makes them better teachers in a way.

    In my life, I’ve enjoyed women initiating kino with me, basically asking for sex using body language. I’ve noticed this attraction multiple times. I always wonder why? Being I’m hairier then most men, and I do have a Jason Stantham look going on, so I’m no pretty pony boy. So I ask the girls how they feel when they stroke my fore arm. That is the habit women have with me. Some say it feels tingly others say electricity under the palms of there skin. It feels good to be complimented, on something that is taboo in modern human aesthetics of today’s feminised hairless society. Balless society.

    I’ve just been lucky in life, that is how I feel. I’ve always had good luck. Remember I wrote about also working in a night club? Well I got that job, from the female melon manager being impressed with my work ethic as a cashier(My other job at the time), she offered me a job on the spot… I found out the hierarchy, by being invisible, and a few people telling me secrets… Plus I can handle my piss real well, it’s amazing what some people say when they’re pissed.

    I tried to reply this to a certain moniker at Voxday’s Alpha game, though I couldn’t get my email to work with the commentator box… thingy. So I thought I’d write this bit here too.

    If someone wants to have a more outward or extroverted look, to change there inward, introverted look and attitude. Then physical posture must be accessed and then prescribed an upper body and core stability, strength building routine. It takes patience and persistence. Physio conditioning of injuries takes a minimum of 10000 repetitions, that is a bare minimum base line. Holding your posture, straight back, shoulders back, when typing on your computer, doing weights, running, walking, everyday movements helps to train the posture too. 6 weeks you know a difference, 3 months and you should see a change, not only in posture but tone and strength…Depends how full on you want to go. Do you want to be a pull up champion LOL…

    You can also buy a cheat, elastic straps that pull your shoulders back too. Though I don’t recommend that.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      >Re-read your article again… All these PUA talk of kino… Gamma this Alpha that. Most PUA I believe have an Alpha/Gamma complex, the gamma comes out in projections. It’s what makes them better teachers in a way.

      Agreed. Also, people who don’t grok the details intuitively are better at explaining them later on. Hence, naturals are the worst teachers (“Just do what feels right man.” Yeah, thanks for nothing.)

      > Remember I wrote about also working in a night club? Well I got that job, from the female melon manager being impressed with my work ethic as a cashier(My other job at the time), she offered me a job on the spot…

      Funny, I got the job exactly the same way. McDonald’s drive-through window.

  3. Pingback: Projection = incorrect theory of mind predictions | Aeoli Pera

  4. Pingback: Humor is the low end of sadism | Aeoli Pera

  5. Pingback: Society is operant conditioning | Aeoli Pera

  6. Pingback: Scientific description of guilt vs. shame | Aeoli Pera

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s