Apparently I’m terrible at blogging now

So here’s a comment from a VP thread instead of something original.

Another reason science is a poor guide is that, done properly, it takes too long. We are in a very strange moment in time where everything is changing very quickly: genetic mutations, magnetic north, weather cycles, ecological conditions, etc. This is a poorly understood source of error in all but the most immovable sciences (e.g. physics). By analogy, imagine that the slow shift in the fundamental physical constants of cosmology were instead quick and erratic. This would introduce unaccounted errors in experimental methods.

I noticed about five years ago that the meteorologists were suddenly doing a fantastic job of predicting the 5-day forecast. All that data-crunching appears to have paid off. But now I’m noticing huge systemic biases in their mistakes (last year and a half or so). They still do an incredible job, considering, but they were constantly guessing low on temperatures in Minnesota’s this year. That sort of thing isn’t supposed to happen. And the precipitation is throwing them off much more than usual, although at first glance the errors at least appear to be properly random.

Or maybe I’m just being normal crazy.


About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
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6 Responses to Apparently I’m terrible at blogging now

  1. Mycroft Jones says:

    I the Bible it mentions the 4 angels who hold back the winds. And God causing droughts and floods. You don’t think? The intervention of an intelligent outside agent makes any predictions moot.

  2. sharing-addicted midwit says:

    too good not to share it (delete it!)

    “The Gormans, too, argue that ways of thinking that now seem self-destructive must at some point have been adaptive. And they, too, dedicate many pages to confirmation bias, which, they claim, has a physiological component. They cite research suggesting that people experience genuine pleasure—a rush of dopamine—when processing information that supports their beliefs. “It feels good to ‘stick to our guns’ even if we are wrong,” they observe.”

    • sharing-addicted midwit says:

      This has patent implications when it comes to… “social grace”, as you call it, upkeeping “love”, “friendship”,
      “harmony” in the “group”, …

      It’s all about inducing shots of the RIGHT chemicals in the brain (they’ll associate you with it), and not of the WRONG ones.

      So the more the intelligence/insight/understranding/maturity gap is between, say, you and your “gal”, the more you have to feign and act, and play-act and deceive, and fake and pretend.


      #happy happy happy
      #love love love

      21 People Liked This Selfie

    • sharing-addicted midwit says:

      They are addicted to their ignorance, in other words.

      I noted in the past… that there’s nothing a human will cling to so madly, and safeguard from the offensive of truth-sayers so sternly, than their own ignorance.

      • sharing-addicted midwit says:

        Now we have a gaping divide between humans who know themselves (thus others) — the Sociopaths — and the masses — Losers, Clueless, Females, … — who don’t know themselves, and whose mental safety forbids them from knowing themselves.

        As we evolve, and technology evolves, the gap broadens, and so does the range of exploitation options and manners.

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