Warning

I was hoping to do a post about this possible secondary crash in real estate prices, but I don’t have time or anything really substantial to add. So you folks out there with investments in that area (Zeke) should start thinking of it in terms of capital rather than equity for a little while because you might find yourself unable to get rid of it for a few years.

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About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
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11 Responses to Warning

  1. Edenist whackjob says:

    I wonder if that guy has some kind of anxiety disorder. Definitely seems apocalypse around every corner.

    Similar to how Ligotti, who wrote the anti-natalist “Conspiracy against the human race” and doesn’t believe there is a self or a meaning to life, has panic disorder (and probably depersonalization, as they tend to go together).

    Not saying one can’t be mentally healthy AND see apocalypse around the corner, just saying that it’s hard to stay objective when one has a misfiring amygdala. I’m noticing this more and more myself as I am (hopefully) emerging from a decade of a mental darkness.

    • Edenist whackjob says:

      Other manospherites are not too worried: https://twitter.com/WallStPlayboys/status/636210397456920577

    • Edenist whackjob says:

      That being said, I was a survivalist before I developed clinical paranoia.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      I’ve noticed this as well. I’m not exactly sure what causes people to have these misfires, but if their executive function is also impaired they will invent reasons to be scared.

      Still, the proof is in the predictions in this guy’s case. Prediction is HARD.

      • Edenist whackjob says:

        A thought that keeps coming up for me recently: “prediction is hard, but if I’m smart I should be able to do it”. There is a resistance to not being able to predict.

        But what do we really need in order to be able to predict things?

        We need:

        1) Good information. We don’t need perfect information (like in chess) but we do need to know if something is 10% or 90% probability. Otherwise, how can you chain together probabilities to arrive at a final one?
        2) The certainty that effects we can’t see are practically irrevelant. No unknown unknowns. So, if we are predicting the movement of billiard balls, we don’t take relativity into effect because we don’t care about those at this level of observation. Or, we might need relativity to build our space rocket, but we don’t need to take the pull of the Andromeda galaxy into account, for the same reason (I don’t know physics, just making this up based on guesses).

        This works well for Thal subjects, but does it work well for things that are really *worth* predicting in the current regime? (Ie you can’t get rich off of writing physics papers, but you can from the stock market).

        No, it doesn’t.

        The belief that one can really predict those kinds of things – it’s something like Hari Seldon’s Psychohistory in the Foundation series. A very Thal take on the subject. But in the real world, we get nutty subcultures instead. Mix constant anxiety in there (as I suspect some of those doom-bloggers have) and you introduce a moving away from / moving toward axis. Ie you are no longer dispassionately observing the pool table, you WANT the balls to move in certain ways and you start looking for evidence. And this is quite easy to do when the pool table is really a hologram and you can see whatever you feel like depending on where you stand.

        But what about melon thinking and predictive ability?

        What I’ve thought (while high on weed) is that there is some kind of “geometry” to human action. Human action is a native data-type to the universe. Ie we are not just molecules, action matters. The law of karma in eastern religions is a straightforward glimpse into this (I guess it’s less evident in Christianity to the untrained eye).

        Maybe melons can “see” this geometry, and so they CAN make predictions about volatile systems (ie human ones). Because they see beyond the chaos of the moment, and see the geometry of action. This is possibly also why they are more into history than Thals, or at least like it for a different reason.

        The 2 points above from a melon perspective:
        1) Good information. They don’t need it in the same way, because the way the “geometry” works is that different chains of concrete events can lead to the same conclusion. “It was bound to happen”, Spengler’s civilization cycle, karma, importance of good breeding, etc. Instead of probability, melons think in terms of quality. There is some attractor that makes certain outcomes happen regardless.
        2) Practically irrelevant effects beyond the level of observation. I think this is totally different for melons. If you have a huge water tank and you put a small amount of kool-aid in there, the taste difference is completely irrelevant (unless you believe in homeopathy). If you have a huge tank of gas and you put a small ember in there, it might go up in flames. Big difference. Someone said that melons are thermodynamic thinkers, and this might tie in with that.

        This explains a lot of melon confidence. They know that if they start heading in the right direction and do the right things, good things will happen. Thals are much more like “but why should I start smiling at people, what good will that do?” whereas the melon sees that that was the small spark that led to getting a promotion and laying babes later on.

        Lastly, a koan/meditation that might alleviate the Thal failure mode of trying to predict things that cannot be predicted like that (required knowledge: Gervais principles):

        Predicting like a thard is Clueless.
        You are being stupidly engaged.
        Level up and be a Sociopath predictor.
        Be intelligently disengaged.
        Don’t apply mechanistic predictions to thermodynamic systems.
        Intuit the geometry, look at history and character.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      Depersonalization seems to be the high end of anxiety, sort of like how depression is the high end of frustration.

      • Edenist whackjob says:

        Yeah, it’s anxiety + denial + intact cognitive function. A computer floating around in the air, basically. And being shit scared of everything, but out of touch with that.

  2. Heaviside says:

    Why the heck would American banks ever deploy haircuts? Our banks don’t need deposits to lend, allowing consumers to make deposits is basically an annoying public service that they are obligated to preform. You can tell that banks aren’t eager to encourage people to make deposits by the pitiful interest rates that they’re offering. If Americans voluntarily decided to withdraw most of their savings the response of banks would probably be, “Good riddance! Go buy an Xbox!”

    An economic apocalypse can happen, but it won’t take the specific form of consumers being denied access to their deposits.

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