People are generally wrong, but in certain contexts the wisdom of the crowds hits home.
Mass predictions are usually wrong, however, which is probably due to the ease at which perceptions can be influenced by social and structural pressures (to say nothing of the myriad of human psychological quirks).
The image in my minds eye is that of waves crashing against each other and masking the hidden currents below; those which even the most experienced of sailors can barely glimpse.
Things get even more complicated when we attempt to account for the degree to which our beliefs affect what actually happens.
What it must be to be a fish in the ocean.
In my mental model, bigocc cognition is basically interchangeable with the wisdom of crowds. They are both good at the same sorts of problems and solve them in the same way. Chained to a high IQ this becomes very potent, but unfortunately neurotypical crowds don’t have higher intelligence as the number of contributors goes up. (Aspie crowds do somewhat, because ingenopathic altruism.)
It is important to note that bigoccs are also prone to the same sorts of mistakes as crowds. Gray matter is instinctive, impulsive and prone to biases and fallacies. These evolved for good reasons, but it’s easy to lead them astray by bypassing the rational filters and implanting stereotypes directly, which is the point of propaganda and advertising.
So, the care and feeding of the bigocc has two parts: 1) Information diet, restrict yourself to stereotypes whose origin you can consciously recall (e.g. badass kung fu chicks- have I known any warrior women personally?). Embrace your hatred for Hollywood! 2) Learn the names of various common fallacies, biases, stereotype errors, and learn to guard against them. Don’t just blindly throw them away though! That’s what clever sillies do, which can lead to an immigrant rape crisis so big that even the NYT will admit it exists. Instead, learn to use them correctly.