Donald Trump will fail to get 1237 delegates, but he will win the Republican nomination regardless. The hysterical voices declaring that they will burn the GOP before letting Trump win will be over-ruled and cooler heads will prevail. (Admittedly, I stole this prediction from Mike Enoch.)
Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination because she’s playing straight identity politics, whereas Bernie Sanders is playing rhetorical politics (corresponds to analogy in the persuasion stack). When have women and minorities ever withdrawn their support from anyone over their alleged criminal history? As long as her handlers keep her hideous personality off of TV, the nomination is in the bag.
Donald Trump will win the general election handily for two big reasons.
The first reason is that there is a level above identity politics that I’ve previously described as confidence. As Koanic said, “Charisma is the backdoor to the human brain.”
0. Charisma (superlative)
1. Identity (best)
2. Analogy (okay, not great)
3. Reason (useless)
4. Definition (capitulation)
Frame is perception, perception is magic, and Donald Trump is a wizard. Thus, he is the master persuader. Never has a presidential candidate spoken so much while saying so little, and still communicated so much (by changing the frame- somewhat accidentally I think).
The second reason he’ll win is that the general election is going to be nasty on a level we can’t yet imagine. Today’s protests will look like church picnics. Neither Trump nor Clinton desire this, but their fans will leave them with no choice but to pursue every advantage and drive it to the hilt. Roger Stone will bring Hillary Clinton’s skeletons out of the closet, and this will be the deciding factor for white turnout. Women will finally abandon her, the nicer hwhytes will stay home or maybe even vote Trump, and the white proles will be out in surprising numbers to protest the way they’ll have been treated throughout the general election.
The truly interesting question is how people are going to act after the election. That’ll be another post, but we should meditate on the powerful cultural players involved in the meantime:
The God Emperor hisself
SWPLs and SJWs (cosmopolitans, academics, and technologists)
Sociopathic economic Republicans (large and small business owners)
Scary white people
Let me know if I’m forgetting anyone important. Some of these will turn out to have no political effect at all (flyover hwhytes will be entirely useless). Also note the complete lack of religious influence implied. A Trump presidency buys us extra time at the expense of a more catastrophic collapse, and I believe it will be a very bad trade. My medium-term predictions are not cheerful.