Near-future political predictions

Donald Trump will fail to get 1237 delegates, but he will win the Republican nomination regardless. The hysterical voices declaring that they will burn the GOP before letting Trump win will be over-ruled and cooler heads will prevail. (Admittedly, I stole this prediction from Mike Enoch.)

Hillary Clinton will win the Democratic nomination because she’s playing straight identity politics, whereas Bernie Sanders is playing rhetorical politics (corresponds to analogy in the persuasion stack). When have women and minorities ever withdrawn their support from anyone over their alleged criminal history? As long as her handlers keep her hideous personality off of TV, the nomination is in the bag.

Donald Trump will win the general election handily for two big reasons.

The first reason is that there is a level above identity politics that I’ve previously described as confidence. As Koanic said, “Charisma is the backdoor to the human brain.”

0. Charisma (superlative)
1. Identity (best)
2. Analogy (okay, not great)
3. Reason (useless)
4. Definition (capitulation)

Frame is perception, perception is magic, and Donald Trump is a wizard. Thus, he is the master persuader. Never has a presidential candidate spoken so much while saying so little, and still communicated so much (by changing the frame- somewhat accidentally I think).

The second reason he’ll win is that the general election is going to be nasty on a level we can’t yet imagine. Today’s protests will look like church picnics. Neither Trump nor Clinton desire this, but their fans will leave them with no choice but to pursue every advantage and drive it to the hilt. Roger Stone will bring Hillary Clinton’s skeletons out of the closet, and this will be the deciding factor for white turnout. Women will finally abandon her, the nicer hwhytes will stay home or maybe even vote Trump, and the white proles will be out in surprising numbers to protest the way they’ll have been treated throughout the general election.

The truly interesting question is how people are going to act after the election. That’ll be another post, but we should meditate on the powerful cultural players involved in the meantime:

The God Emperor hisself
White melonheads
SWPLs and SJWs (cosmopolitans, academics, and technologists)
Flyover hwhytes
Sociopathic economic Republicans (large and small business owners)
Mexican separatists
Scary white people

Let me know if I’m forgetting anyone important. Some of these will turn out to have no political effect at all (flyover hwhytes will be entirely useless). Also note the complete lack of religious influence implied. A Trump presidency buys us extra time at the expense of a more catastrophic collapse, and I believe it will be a very bad trade. My medium-term predictions are not cheerful.


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9 Responses to Near-future political predictions

  1. A.B. Prosper says:

    Given the broad “folk” consensus is that a US collapse/ civil war scenario is at least 100 million dead , I’d be hard pressed to see how Trump could make this worse.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      I’m expecting more-or-less twice that.

      • A.B. Prosper says:

        With or without Trump? I’m not sure how he could make it worse baring betrayal

        Also just for curiosities sake, what kind of collapse do you think will occur?

        Myself I don’t expect to see an implosion or explosion only a slow decay till future people in FUSA end up in a 3rd world country, I’m thinking Brazil with less charm but there are other possibilities, an outright ethnic civil war after an economic implosion is also somewhat likable

        We could also get a Junta . A sponsored one seems a little less likely than it used to, at least the Business Junta 2.0’s guy General Mattis basically said “nope”

        Also a lot of soldiers and active duty types and former military are extremely unhappy at the current state of affairs and Iknow more than a few who I would describe as NCIS “American” Conservatives who are starting to sound like White Nationalists so there is that.

        • Aeoli Pera says:

          Well, I was thinking slow decay not long ago, but I’ve been having little visions to the contrary. I’m leaning heavily toward catastrophic collapse now.

          Trump will make it worse because he’s fundamentally incapable of addressing the underlying issues that are spiraling out of control, but his election will temporarily palliate the right-wing response. Think of the US as a deteriorating schizophrenic: the schizophrenia is accelerating and the doctor prescribes a tranquilizer. Well and good for now and the family goes back to ignoring the underlying condition, but then the tranquilizer wears off, what happens?

  2. Heaviside says:

    I guess the important question is whether the national security community would prefer the dependable corruption of the Clintons or if they think a Trump administration would give them the latitude to do things that would normally be unacceptable to the public.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      Unfortunately, I don’t have a very good mental model for how those organizations operate internally. Probably not much different from Freemasonry.

  3. podrag says:

    Look there are plenty of things to be optimistic about as well. There is cool technology and I think the smart people with reasonable levels of influence who are nice are beginning to ask why they just can’t get the staff any longer. The forces of light will amass.

    When shit’s about to go down, we should be cheerful. We are about to make history. We are making history right now. So sit up, grab a cup of tea, and pay attention to the moment!

  4. Pingback: Off to a great start | Aeoli Pera

  5. Pingback: Why I’m predicting ~200 million dead | Aeoli Pera

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