Minor Melon Magic: Part 1

(Guest Post From Boneflour)

From buying a used car to going on a first date, people are constantly asking, “Is this worth it?” If you know how people make that decision, you can change their answer. This is useful to get a job, make a sale, change a grade from a B to an A, plan a party, etc. etc.

I’m doing guesswork when it comes to Edenism, but I’d say these methods are naturally used by melony types as part of their “reality distortion field” toolkit. They get it instinctively, I read books and reverse engineer it.

This post will explain a bit of the how, and also explain why all those TV ads have the same bits in them. (“Call now, and we’ll double the offer!” “Just return it if you’re not 100% satisfied, and you can even keep the hair comb!” “This offer ends soon, call now!” Why do they still work, even though they’re so cheesy?)

All decisions are influenced by a few key factors, which appeal more or less strongly to different personality types and demographics. Each decision can be assigned positions along these axes:

cost/benefit – does it cost money/time/emotional effort, merely exchange one resource for another, or is it a net positive?

certain/uncertain – how likely are the costs and payoff?

large/moderate/small – big stakes or relatively small?

immediate/mid/long term – how soon will the effects happen?

urgent/can wait – do you have to decide now, or do you have time? (not covered here for space reasons)

Think of it like poker. You have multiple hands, and the best hand “wins” (i.e. you decide on whatever has the best hand).

For example, a lotto ticket is a certain, small, immediate cost (the lotto ticket) for an uncertain, large, immediate benefit (WINNING). For many people, the trade is worth it. But for plenty of people, that money is as good as gone. Avoiding that wallet pain beats a small chance of winning the lotto.

Old Man Beardy buys a ticket every month or so, just for “insurance”, but he don’t like losing money on the lotto when he could get a pack of Pall Malls instead. The lotto ticket loses the trade.

Good marketing changes the perception of these categories, beefing up the hand the marketer wants to win.

For example, most scratch off tickets have minor prizes and “extra chances”. Besides the main jackpot, sometimes you win a free ticket or a smaller amount of cash. Now there are multiple possible benefits and only one cost. Certain, small cost for “certain”, small benefit… AND an uncertain, large benefit. (Everything involved is immediate, so that part cancels out.)

The small certain cost and small “certain” benefit cancel out, leaving only the chance for the Jackpot on the one side. Lotto ticket wins the trade.

Old Man Beardy buys tickets every week, now. It’s just five dollars a ticket, and he’s won 50 bucks on the extra scratch that one time! One of these days he’s going to get the jackpot. With the number of tickets he’s buying, it’s just a matter of time, right?

Never mind that he’s opened up an even bigger money hole, statistically. It feels like winning, because the perception of the trade is different.

People as a whole are biased towards certain trade-offs, and against others. We don’t notice them because they’re obvious. Would you hold your breath until you died for 5 bucks? Exactly. Bad trade, no deal.

At the broadest scale, people want to avoid pain (costs) more than just about anything else. This is the reason people put up with shit jobs. A better one is right down the street, but you’d have to fill out an application, get your resume together, go to interviews… blegh.

Tim Ferris used this bias to ace his undergrad classes.

In The Four Hour Work Week, Ferris tells a story about how he got good grades despite so-so effort. Any time his TA gave him anything less than an A, he would visit the TA and spend hours going over every miniscule, agonizing detail of what caused that low grade… So the next time he turned in a B paper, the TA would bump it up to an A. Anything to avoid the hair-pulling hassle of dealing with that Ferris kid.

At the race/large group level, people have different biases as well. Alt-Righters often speak of “high time preference” in blacks. This basically means any “immediate” benefits automagically win against “long term” benefits… and even long term pain. Why invest money to buy things later when you can spend everything you got right now? Sure, a thug lyfe boi might do jail time later, but they get a pair of sneakers right now.

The Chappelle Show has a great bit about this:

So these are not hard rules so much as categories that people generally like. Which brings us back to marketing: If you can change the category your product is in, you can go from “hell no” to “shut up and take my money” in an instant.

Example: A home security salesman was going door to door, trying to sell home alarm systems. The problem was, he was selling something with a certain, large, immediate drawback: Security systems cost money to buy and install.

Worse, they only do anything if they deter a robbery. So for most people, there was essentially no benefit, only two kinds of costs to consider. It was a trade between a certain, immediate, moderate cost (alarm system)… versus a large, long term, uncertain cost (possible robbery).

Note: This is also why people don’t like to buy car/health insurance until they’re wrecked/sick. The whole “spend money now to maybe save money later” just doesn’t seem that appetizing.

Anyway, here’s how this particular salesman changed that trade: He hired some rough looking guys to walk around the neighborhood, looking mean. Suddenly, robbery wasn’t a far off possibility, it was right outside the front door!

Now, the trade changed… to a certain, immediate, moderate cost (alarm system) vs. certain, immediate, large cost (those robber types look about to strike). The alarm system wins.

Obviously you don’t want to do this particular tactic in real life. Bad juju. Just don’t do it. I’m including this story to show that the system works.

So you can change the trade-off in someone’s mind to favor the choice you want them to pick. You do so by adjusting different elements of the trade up or down… by emphasizing a small benefit to make it a large one, or by making an uncertain aspect seem more certain.

Well, dingus. I explained the “Lotto Ticket” method of changing certainty and cost. I talked about how Tim Ferris got straight As with B papers. But I didn’t quite get to the Money Back Guarantee. I’ll get that in Part 2. And as an extra, I’ll explain how you can use this information to do anything from putting together a basketball group to dodging a mugging without even fighting.

About Aeoli Pera

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33 Responses to Minor Melon Magic: Part 1

  1. podrag says:

    Man I feel sorry for Dave Chappelle. He really tried to make some very awesome points but ultimately people who watch TV comprise mostly stupid assholes and there’s the rub. Overall I’m surprised this post even requires mention, so yeah you’re probably right that it should be explicitly stated.

    Double-best-super-awesome loyalty points on every purchase or you’re obviously a super cool guy anyway so what do you have to lose unless you say no and then you’re a loser dumb-fuck terrorist. Shop at Cost-mart-co today or you’re basically the worst parts of Osama Bin Laden crossed with Donald Trump and thus everyone will ostracise you.

    • podrag says:

      In a way it makes sense. 1950s American advertising was cool, it was fun, but today it’s basically become hardcore Satanism. The whole package of economics, government, advertising, media et cetera weaves together into quite a nasty thing overall.

      • podrag says:

        Not that I’m romanticising the past or anything but the modern world looks more and more like Requiem for a Dream every day https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nU7dC9bIDg

      • Boneflour says:

        Everything in the 50s WAS better, if only because the rot wasn’t so prominent.

        Who would have thought that Detroit then…

        Would turn into Detroit now?

        Advertising is aspirational: Be like a Hollywood Superstar! Be famous! By buying this golf ball/sports car/popsicle brand!

        Hey strong, independent Womyn! You can be a historic doctor like Florence Nightingale… With Camels! It’s like science for your face.

        Men. You can be an ultra manly alpha male. She will follow you anywhere. Just smoke Tipalets!

        Marketing is a tool. Ads can sell the cure for cancer… and ads can sell cancer itself. Doesn’t matter, the methods are the same.

        TheTruth anti-smoking ads were made by professional ad-men. Ads made smoking “cool” by appealing to teenage anti-authority. Ads made smoking “uncool” by… appealing to teenage anti-authority. The first round of ads were so good they got banned for “vilifying the tobacco companies”.

        • podrag says:

          That video makes me teary

        • Aeoli Pera says:

          >Everything in the 50s WAS better, if only because the rot wasn’t so prominent.

          We wuz KANGS ah tells ya.

        • Heaviside says:

          >Who would have thought then

          Military PSYOP/MISO specialists. The US Military psychological warfare establishment realized during the war that they could create artificial internal migrations, and many of today’s black inner cities, such as Oakland and Detroit, were created when blacks were moved to industrial areas to work in arms factories. The black ghetto in Oakland exists on land that was confiscated from Japanese Americans when they were rounded up and put in concentration camps. White Nationalists may vaguely blame “anti-whites” or “jews” for this phenomenon but Dr. Eugene Michael Jones points out that it was the specific jew Louis Wirth who was responsible for this program. He understood that the United States was an artificial multiethnic empire just like the Soviet Union and he understood that ethnic cleansing via forced internal migration and the destruction of organic communities had to take place in the US just as it had in the SU under Stalin. Thus, the suburb.

          These PSYOP specialists also know that American industry has been destroyed consequent to America’s defeat in the Greater East Asia War.

          • Mycroft Jones says:

            Are there further links about the link between Louis Wirth and the invention of the suburb? Also, links describing the mechanisms by which suburbs destroy organic communities? I agree with that thesis, but it is nice to have a good article explaining it.

            • Aeoli Pera says:

              The problem is zoning laws in general. Central organization prefers clean solutions over correct ones and exsanguinates community leadership and mores.

            • Heaviside says:

              See Jones’ book The Slaughter of Cities.

              >Central organization prefers clean solutions over correct ones and exsanguinates community leadership and mores.

              That would be the “Seeing like a State” hypothesis, but it was more than that. The destruction of local communities was the goal, not some unfortunate side-effect.

              The 20th century was the era of planned social change, and the people who deployed these changes in America viewed the American people as the enemy. They were always too susceptible to dangerous influences — catholicism, fascism, communism, domestic terrorism, etc.

            • Aeoli Pera says:

              >That would be the “Seeing like a State” hypothesis, but it was more than that. The destruction of local communities was the goal, not some unfortunate side-effect.

              I agree, just as I believe the purpose of Socialism was to destroy. But the psychological handles it uses are separate from the pricing and organizational mechanisms it uses to depopulate the middle class.

          • Aeoli Pera says:

            What’s the relationship between Jews and Japanese in your scheme?

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      >Overall I’m surprised this post even requires mention, so yeah you’re probably right that it should be explicitly stated.

      This is our curse: aspies are unable to navigate the divide neurotypicals maintain between unstated truths and explicitly stated obfuscations.

      >Double-best-super-awesome loyalty points on every purchase or you’re obviously a super cool guy anyway so what do you have to lose unless you say no and then you’re a loser dumb-fuck terrorist. Shop at Cost-mart-co today or you’re basically the worst parts of Osama Bin Laden crossed with Donald Trump and thus everyone will ostracise you.

      Your inner curmudgeon is peeking out. Despair is a sin brother podrag, and it contradicts the zen ideal of outcome independence from anything material. What is, is.

      • podrag says:

        Yeah our worldly desires are weaved against us, so it’s best to limit them to what the Bible says or something similar. I’m normally pretty good at keeping my curmudgeon under lock and key. I just let it out now and again to make a point. Agreed. What you are saying pretty much confirms the theory that the West is a giant loosh drain of Aspies.

        • Aeoli Pera says:

          The problem goes back to chimp sexuality versus orangutan. The orangutan nests, grows out his eye flanges, and waits for the female to enter his territory. But the chimpanzee female is busy showing off her ovulation to whoever is the community’s alpha male this week.

          • “The orangutan nests, grows out his eye flanges, and waits for the female to enter his territory. ”

            So mewing + k2 + working on your business == orangutancel? :p

            • Aeoli Pera says:

              Well, kinda. I think we’re wired to fall in love with any acceptable female that wanders into our sphere, or what feels like “home”. So co-ed working environments are kinda weird because they’re tense and foreign, which we aren’t wired for in the first place. But if you own a home and there’s an eligible girl that you see regularly in your free time, you’re going to develop one-itis.

              It’s hard to distinguish this from what the PUAhaters call the “normalfag reproduction strategy”. I’m not doing a great job here, but I think I’ll be making a longer post about it soon.

  2. Koanic says:

    I see what you did there at the end.

    No joy so far on server.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      >I see what you did there at the end.

      Heh, nice, I hadn’t seen that until you mentioned it.

      >No joy so far on server.

      Boneflour and I are trying to create enough content to keep all these novelty seekers entertained in the meantime.

      • Mycroft Jones says:

        Nice post Boneflour, enjoyed reading it. Aeoli, thanks for hosting us.

        Polymath, if you are reading this, check out this link: https://artisanaltoadshall.wordpress.com/2016/06/30/polygyny-and-the-beta-apocalypse-fantasy/

        All the stuff I was saying but didn’t know the references, Toad has found the references to back up what I’m saying. Not that you’ll be instantly converted or anything. I hadn’t realized the info came from such a high level source. (not Toad; I mean Sir Richard Burton)

        • Aeoli Pera says:

          You’re welcome for hosting, and sorry I’ve been so bad about getting on Skype for the last week. Maybe we’d better schedule a time. Any afternoon between 3 PM and 9 PM is good for me except this Sunday and Monday.

        • Boneflour says:

          That’s actually a pretty good argument, and counter-intuitive enough to go viral. “Polygamy doesn’t mean the jocks take the girls… it actually means more girls to go around… because polygamists have more daughters. It’s science, bro.”

          • Mycroft Jones says:

            Yep. And part of that mechanism is the older age of men. The thing our society viciously condemns, older men and younger women, is the norm in polygamy. Put it this way. If you are in that bottom 20% of men who NEVER get laid… by the time you hit age 40, you have likely established yourself and figured things out. So in a supportive society (that is, a polygamist society) you will get yourself a 20 year old virgin for a wife, so the “untouchable” male percentage drops to 5% or something. In other words, in a polygamous society, there are far fewer men “left behind” in the sexual market. My own experience is, in a polygamous society, if a woman turns her eye to you, the other men aren’t jealous. They’re happy, like, “thanks for taking her off our hands”.

            • Aeoli Pera says:

              I’d be exceedingly cautious and paranoid about trying to legislate something so important, murky, and ethereal as sexual selection. Monogamy is traditional in the West, therefore I support monogamy for the future of the West, if any. The destruction wrought upon us by our elite class has been largely accomplished by targeting the traditional nuclear family (intentionally!).

            • Mycroft Jones says:

              Not so Aeoli; the West has only abandoned polygamy in the past 1000 years. Monogamy is a peculiar Roman institution, not a Western one. Remember, the Protestant Revolution was able to get off the ground largely because Martin Luther endorsed polygamy (cf Philip Landgrave of Hesse) The need to produce an heir is a powerful one. The alternative to polygamy is Henry the VIII (the other Protestant), murdering his wives in search of an heir.

              Reading about the lives of the rulers of Europe, you will see that polygamy, even among Christians, lasted a very long time. I don’t equate the West with Romanism. Down with Rome.

            • Aeoli Pera says:

              1,000 years is long enough to call it traditional. The tendencies of rulers can be explained without tradition.

              Rome is half of Europe, so I’d be more hesitant to assign it to the trashcan. The other side of the Hajnal line doesn’t think like we do.

  3. Boneflour says:

    Steve Sailer has a good bit on Dave Chappelle: http://www.unz.com/isteve/half-black-comedian-doesnt-get-that-you-should-never-defend-yourself-with-how-is-a-fact-racist/

    “As for Chappelle, he started out making fun of black people for black audiences because that’s what blacks find funny — blacks. Then he transferred his act to national audiences on TV, and a bunch of white facilitators assured him that white people were only laughing at his jokes about black people in a meta-fashion, they were laughing at white stereotypes about blacks, or something. So reassured, he went on making fun of black people until a blue collar white stagehand laughed in a really not-meta fashion at one of his jokes about black people, at which point he realized his white handlers had been lying to him, he had a mental breakdown, and walked out on his $25 million per year contract.”

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