A lurker and Highly Respected Correspondent asks,
Like most ladies who are interested in the wonderful workings of the world what I like is biology with a heavy leavening of math. How am I to deal with the fact that there are literally a million coherent explanations for any observable thing that happens in the world?
What you’re referring to is plausible explanations, which pop up in complex situations where you have relatively little information. If you were omniscient there would be only one coherent explanation. You have to hold judgment in abeyance between plausible contradictory theories, except when you have to make a life decision with real stakes.
In this case it becomes necessary to research more exhaustively, and decide how much time ought to be spent on this due diligence (time being a real cost). In the end this is an emotional judgment, where the victory condition is not to feel bad about the shortfall (if you lose), or feel bad about investing too much time on a trivial win.