Naive success prediction index

Here are the factors that appear to have the strongest impacts on whether a person can get the things they desire. (NB: Not the same as happiness, which is getting what you need.)

  • Health
    • Lack of chronic illness
    • Genetics
    • Nutrition, sleep and exercise
    • Religiosity
  • Intelligence
    • General factor (IQ)
    • Liberal education (good cognitive tools for navigating problems)
  • Adaptive attitude
    • Robust optimism
    • Pragmatism
    • Lack of fear of embarrassment
  • Ambition (internal motivation)
    • Strong ego
    • Psychoticism/associative horizon/creative energy
    • High biological energy
  • Conscientiousness
    • People focus (external motivation)
    • Task focus
  • Opportunity
    • Starting position in adulthood (how much X you have)
    • Social mobility trends (index of opportunities to use X to get Y)
  • Practical skills (taken from Scott Adams, assumes “good but not great” skill level)
    • Public speaking
    • Psychology
    • Business writing
    • Accounting
    • Design (the basics)
    • Conversation
    • Overcoming shyness
    • Second language
    • Golf
    • Proper grammar
    • Persuasion
    • Technology (hobby level)
    • Proper voice technique

Here are the top-level ones you can’t change very much.

  • Intelligence
  • Ambition (internal motivation)
  • Opportunity

Here are the ones you can change a medium amount.

  • Health
  • Adaptive attitude
  • Conscientiousness

Here’s the one you can change a lot.

  • Practical skills

Rate each top-level trait from 1-5:

1: Much worse than normal
2: Lower than normal but could be worse
3: Normal
4: Higher than normal but could be better
5: Much higher than normal, with diminishing returns

Plug into this unweighted formula:

Success prediction index = Product of trait ratings (highest possible score is 5^7 = 78125)

For example, I’d rate my 18-year-old self like so:

  • Intelligence: 4
  • Ambition (internal motivation): 3
  • Opportunity: 5
  • Health: 5
  • Adaptive attitude: 3
  • Conscientiousness: 4
  • Practical skills: 1

Plugging this in I get: Success prediction index = 4*3*5*5*3*4*1 = 3600

Rating myself now, at 29, I’d get:

  • Intelligence: 5
  • Ambition (internal motivation): 4
  • Opportunity: 2
  • Health: 4
  • Adaptive attitude: 2
  • Conscientiousness: 2
  • Practical skills: 3

The new index is 1920, indicating that my future is significantly less promising than when I graduated high school, but not hopeless. However, I should readjust my expectations for how many of my desires I can actually fulfill.

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About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
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22 Responses to Naive success prediction index

  1. purpletigerbot says:

    So maxing out is at 5^7? Anyone in history come close? Some sort of mid/late teen/early twentish prodigy?

  2. MM says:


    Decided to finally capitalize on your little subculture here. Pretty soon my supplements will be the only thing people will remember of the “edenosphere” HAHAHAHAHAHA.
    Actually just bored. May do more.

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  4. Aton says:

    First of all, this post was autistic af. Second, intelligence is plastic enough–if you’re curious, which is of course an effect of a certain threshold of inherent intelligence. I’ve seen as many get substantially smarter as I’ve seen atrophy.

    • Scra-bble says:

      “I’ve seen as many get substantially smarter as I’ve seen atrophy.”

      With the “little” caveat that atrophy is much easier to attain, and a much bigger effect than its contrary.
      An athlete can become a cupcake if they never train/exercise. An average person can’t become an athlete, although with exercise and training their body’s health will improve.

      Same as to the brain.

      • Aton says:

        An average person doesn’t *want* to become an athlete; he just wants to not get fat. When there is desire, even with bad genetics he can make major progress. You’re right to say that it’s easier to atrophy than grow, however. Entropy is a bitch.

  5. Scra-bble says:

    I prefer when you call it self-deception capacity instead of (robust) optimism.

    • Scra-bble says:

      P.S.: Thanks for the sincerity in the assessment of your own intelligence.

      For learning reason I have had to read a host of posts related with IQ & intelligence on Quora and the crowd of people making sure their profile heading tells their IQ is through-the-roof high while busying themselves with explaining in 100 different ways that IQ means nothing, and everybody can achieve anything independent of IQ, like every time, cloyed me.

      Narcissistic cowards.

      (A little note, an impression of mine of about your intelligence. You once wrote your IQ is 138 “2.5 SD above average”. But is your verbal IQ only 138? By your writing it sounds more like 145. You really are damn-precise with scientific terminology, use technical terms in a notably creative way, … I don’t know, my VQ is nearly 135 and I feel there are a pair of bridges between us [I say this comparing my first language, not English, with your English].

      Maybe more generally intelligent people write in a more precise way and can remember more terms even their VQ being the same with other lower-IQ folks?
      I’ll tell you a post on different types of IQ wouldn’t hurt.

      But anyway, I know many other about-140 IQ people and they don’t come anywhere near to you as regards quantity of interests, curiosity, and, I say it again, “academic level writing”.

      • Aton says:

        Aeoli possesses in abundance traits related to g but not easily testable on IQ tests: curiosity, liberality, the quasi-mystical ability to see connections between disparate things. My guess is he’s smarter than tests would show.

      • Son of Distant Trebizond says:

        I despise Quora.

        There walk the hollow men.

        Has such a concentration of self-satisfied, liberal midwittery ever been previously brewed in all of human history?

        If so, did the cancer sprawl so hugely, and blight so many minds as that cesspool has?

        It must be nice to have everything worked out, but the fever has to break eventually; the alternative is to go to your grave with such retarded blandishments on your lips and flab in your heart, your only monument a thousand lost upvotes.

      • Heaviside says:

        sub +5SD IQlets, will they ever learn?

        The answer is “No”.

        The existence of extremely gifted people implies a naturally ordained division of labor. People should not think for themselves. That task is best left to others.

  6. Pingback: Self-rating on success strategies | Aeoli Pera

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