Steve Sailer’s been going hard on the Africaust which is coming later this century, which will herald the largest mass extinction in the known history of our species.
Over at VDARE.com, a demographer points out that all my scary graphs lately have been based on the U.N. Population Division’s optimistic-sounding “medium fertility variant” in which total fertility rates magically converge toward 1.85 babies per woman by the end of the century.
But what if Africans just go on doing what comes natural? The correspondent points out that 10 billion is within reach under the assumption of constant fertility and mortality rates. Indeed, the UN offers a “constant fertility” table with, I believe, declining mortality due to technological advances in health care in which Sub-Saharan Africa’s population in 2100 is 15,175,708,000.
Fifteen billion Sub-Saharans is really not likely to happen, but my main point is: I’m not making these numbers up. These all come from the United Nations, not me.
I figure that’s as good of a reason as any to talk about Malthus and the food supply (good introduction here). There’s obviously something to the whole population bomb thing, particularly if we’re willing to admit there’s a difference between 800 million Europeans and 800 million Nigerians (approximate UN numbers for 2100). Critics of Malthus claim that his theory did not account for human innovation staving off the scarcity ITZ—this is true, we have more food now than ever at the same time as we have more people than ever. But critics then didn’t know what we know now: innovation is almost exclusively a stale, pale, white male thing, and whites don’t reproduce in population-dense, walkable cities. Furthermore, the ability of a group to exploit arable real estate is dependent on both population and median racial ability. Give a Japanese man an acre and he’ll have a self-sufficient farm, give 100 Japanese men an acre and they’ll build a six-story hydroponics multiplex with a support industry and extra food to export.
So rather than throwing Malthus’ model out entirely, we should improve it with some race realism and common sense.
If you’re a squishy liberal and you think this will magically work out because Diversity and Progress and Innovation, try extrapolating that black line on the graph another one hundred years. It’s a law of nature that phenomena following an exponential growth law always run into a boundary condition.