Midterm predictions

Same popular vote as ever, but polarization on a level that will cause sabermetricians to introduce new vocabulary to explain how quickly the variance in the distribution is increasing even as the center of mass moves very little. That is, roughly the same number of seats for everybody, but with red areas becoming much more red and blue areas becoming much more blue. In red strongholds we’ll get a few Chad Buchanans and in blue strongholds we’ll see openly communist/muslim/etc. extremists like Ocasio-Cortez win. So, using the spectrum from this excellent paper (H/T Koanic)…

2018-10-15 20_09_54-Political tribes.pdf - Foxit Reader

2018-10-15 20_15_50-Political tribes.pdf - Foxit Reader

2018-10-15 20_16_59-Political tribes.pdf - Foxit Reader

…this predicts our future will have more immigration restrictionism and more crackdowns on speech. It’s never fun for a naturally idealistic person to compromise but, pragmatically speaking, I’d make that trade in a heartbeat.

We’ll see the usual low turnout in the vast majority of races (contra the insulated technocrats who are expecting high turnout, voter enthusiasm, and a $COLOR wave), with unusually high turnout in a few key Trump referenda that will even out across the country. In statistical terms, think of a flatter distribution with much more variance and about the same center of mass. This will make for a hotbed of Frame Games because people will be able to find supporting evidence to believe whatever they want. In particular I expect the Alt-West will declare the Eternal Victory March of Truth and Light (due to living primarily in Republican strongholds) and work themselves up to their own little Cville where they learn why the NPC meme was “rediscovered” after lying dormant for years. As with the Alt-White’s fascism, this will cut straight to the core of their worldview and I’m curious to watch what they make of it.

So even as our external borders harden, the internal borders will be hardening faster and every side’s extremists will begin to learn the value of message discipline in 4GW.

About Aeoli Pera

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3 Responses to Midterm predictions

  1. fuzziewuzziebear says:

    It is polarization as you describe that led to the war in the wake of the 1860 election. What I thought would prevent that from happening again is turning out to be untrue. We are geographically separated, it is the coasts against those who live inland and the metro areas against the the countryside.

  2. Ø says:

    Yep, I see increasingly dramatic polarization as man follows his predictable heart

  3. bicebicebice says:

    “fuzziewuzziebear says:
    October 20, 2018 at 11:38 pm
    It is polarization as you describe that led to the war in the wake of the 1860 election. What I thought would prevent that from happening again is turning out to be untrue. We are geographically separated, it is the coasts against those who live inland and the metro areas against the the countryside.”

    *rubs treestumps together* American demographic prediction since this is a thing because BICEDIDYOUREALIZETHEREARE4BILLIONAFRICANSINAFRICA, predics that America will go full circle and become a Christian nation when the Amish breed out all the other shit whites who spen’t their first five minutes in the americas drawing up plans on how they could bring as many non-whites over there as possible as slave labor and call them based.

    “lel yeah right a highly unlikely demographic prediction whereas the negroid one is written in stone”. You are mentally separated by genetics, not all whites are the same (what do you mean Edenism and science outright dismissing 80% what do you mean r/K ARE YOU WORKING FOR THE JEWS BICE?!? REMEMBER WHIEUTEYTYE-PEOPLE AND SOCIALIST COMMUNITY AND ADOLF).

    even trump will get stumped, for the first time in his life, treestumped

    feudalist christian god-fearing eco-fascism with solar powered computer terminals and bingbing on sunday after the battery charged for a whole week, this is what the “fall” of western civilization has in store meanings you can’t possible lose at life no matter what you do so get out there and start making bank off the backs of the living dead slave consumer-units. You could be a millionaire in a month, that John Deere stock has rocketed for a reason you know.

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