These are the best posts on here these days.
Man, I partied like a 31-year-old last night.
Was up until 1, just woke up.
Too old to be partying like a 31-year-old.
It wasn’t a planned thing, the idea was to celebrate the last day of work by smoking a cigar and brooding, then going to bed early.
But then some neighbors invited me for beers, and then my neighbors upstairs invited me to their birthday party.
The end of this story is I need to start drinking some coffee.
Yeah, I’m pretty proud of myself.
Truly do the gods bestow their blessings when they need a laugh
I’ll have you know people are surprised when I tell them about the ass burgers. I’m a serious guy!
And, probably due to Irish genetics, I don’t get hangovers. So I’m practically a party machine if you think about it.
But enough about my wild adventures, how are you?
Healthy, stable, understimulated. Very much the usual
Becoming increasingly interested in the Three Gorges Dam
Well shit, then–and don’t take this the wrong way–I’d better stimulate you.
Unless you like dams?
Not much to say on that front. Mother of all rainy seasons happening, seismic activity picking up, monsoons incoming to the area, and several hundred million lives are dependent on chinese engineering.
Ah, I see.
Supposedly. Can’t speak intelligently to it but even in the most optimistic read of the facts, things don’t look great
There’s a certain morbid curiosity in paying attention, somewhat akin to watching apossible car crash in slow motion
Or maybe a bullfight in which the matador is pretty clearly drunk
If it makes you feel better, we just had a big dam break up in Midland.
It was all over the news. Big flood, lots of property damage. The owner had been told for years to maintain the thing but as you probably know all business owners are gutter snipes.
Can’t compete with the other businesses who are just taking a chance on not maintaining and spending the money elsewise, and if you don’t give a shit about anybody the downside is limited by how much you can actually pay out in lawsuits.
I believe they’re calling this “fast life history strategy” these days, but in my day we called it living fast and dying young.
Breeding aplenty too, but we didn’t have contraception in those days.
It’s a bold strategy, let’s see how it plays out for them
Oh hang on, this is in China.
This is like their version of Yellowstone then.
If there was ever a year for things to get wild, 2020 seems a viable candidate
It would change things if one of these two went belly-up.
Interesting to think that all of geopolitics could turn upside-down at random.
I wonder if that’s in the probability trees of the superforecasters.
It’s a bit outside the box, and a tad hard to assess probabilities
“Our entire South China Sea model becomes moot if the Three Gorges Dam breaks. Then America enjoys another 300 years of hegemony!”
I guess Taleb had a point.
Even if his IQ isn’t real.
Ding, coffee’s done!
Impossible to superforecast in a world of random events. Need to have some coherency to events, some patterns to identify, to be able to assess and forecast with any degree of consistency
Or God on your side.
Very hard to super forecast a random number generator
Hard but apparently not impossible.
Woodley mentioned some fairly mainstream paranormal research where you can manipulate RNGs somehow.
Sorta fits that this kind of research would start becoming more serious as we enter a new pagan age.
Lower-p pagan, I’d specify.
Hey, that’s the sort of prediction that’s fairly robust!
Sort of an “everybody knows but nobody knows why” situation.
So more broadly the superconscious mind is becoming more and more important to forecasting since nothing else works anymore.
Insofar as the wisdom of crowds is like a dog sensing an earthquake, we can still predict things in the main.
Merits further study
For my own part, I’ve always wondered whether RNG predictions were a result of prediction or some kind of manipulation
The ones I mentioned?
i.e. Consciousness effects brought about the desried number instead of seeing it
In other words, you fool yourself into thinking the number that appears is one of the ones you wanted all along.
I would hope Woodley made sure the methodology prevents that sort of thing but I suppose when it comes to something as important as fundamental epistemological assumptions you have to check these things yourself.
More that you manage to make the number you’re thinking of appear and then you call it prediction
Oh, I think that’s the idea of the tests.
What the hell, I’ll look it up.
Here’s what I found: https://www.gwern.net/docs/psychology/europeanjournalofparapsychology/2005-ejpv-20-1.pdf
“Effects on ESP Performance During a Gambling Task”
“They also found that people tended to hold one and only one belief about the nature of luck: (i) luck was “an attribute that was either present or absent at birth,” or (ii) the “level of luck” could be controlled by “superstitious behavior,” or (iii) “luck was given to them (and taken away from them) by a ‘powerful other’ ” (p. 37) ”
Any one of these would be big if true.
And it could make a career (at the small price of any and all credibility) if any one could be proven
A pity doing so would be effectively impossible
Very hard to control for the existence of God in double-blind stuides
But not the existence of luck!
That would be very easy.
“There were only chance differences between ‘lucky’ and ‘unlucky’ participants on psi scores, and ratings of predicted psi performance. However, a significant positive correlation was found between predicted psi performance and actual psi performance.”
Now that’s interesting
Or maybe not as much on first glance
But still something
What I get from that is luck is real and distributed on a bell curve.
I believe you mentioned the idea that luck is genetic was the plot of a popular science fiction book.
One possibility. Or that feeling lucky makes you lucky. I’m sure I can postulate a few other explanations after some more coffee
Yes, if I recall. You dug it up but I’ve forgotten the name of it
Defining luck as neuroticism, intelligence, and “well-being” was one choice
Ringworld was the book.
“greater-than-expected occurrence of low-probability random events not orchestrated by a conscious entity” would be another, though you see how the action of any kind of higher power blows that all out of the water
Fate as force versus Fate as post-hoc rationalization is another spanner in the works
Having become a boy of destiny myself, I incline to the former view.
Fate as a confluence of forces you can sense and swim with or against, is how I would describe it.
Suppose you could run an experiment in which each participant is given a luck self-assessment, then assigned a number, then you did a few thousand RNG trials and the person whose number comes up the most gets some money
“Having become a boy of destiny myself, I incline to the former view.
Fate as a confluence of forces you can sense and swim with or against, is how I would describe it.” agree with that
I seem to recall reading that erotic stimulus enhances ESP effects and such things, but i imagine there are ethical issues in giving out blowjobs to the “luckiest” person in a cohort of test subjects
Though you probably wouldn’t lack for volunteers
That’s the whole idea of sex magic, I’d imagine.
To my awareness, yes
Another subject that might be tricky to study in a labratory setting
Young boy, like a cruel angel’s thesis,
Live up to be a legend…
Even though clear blue winds
Beat on the door of my heart,
You just smile, looking straight at me
Too involved in yearning for
Something to hold on
The innocent eyes still know nothing of fate yet.
But someday you will notice
On those shoulders of yours
There are strong wings
To guide you to the far future.
Warning: this is weeb shit.
Though it would be an interesting experiment in how far you can push the boundaries of tenure
Muh ESP is setting off the “Evangelion” detector like crazy
I think the rule now is anything that doesn’t mention the Jews or make people feel like the college itself is ridiculous (and thus undeserving of vast sums of money) is okay.
Anything that implies that people are hapless peons of their environment and nothing they do is their fault is usually okay
the “smile, nod, and encourage people to live up to their beliefs” strategy becomes ever more optimal
Be the agent of Karma you wish to see in the world
That sounds devious.
The idea I just had is even moreso.
“Present them with a choice.”
There is some risk of the “psychopath’s logic” of “you deserve what you get”
Presenting a choice is interesting because in a sense, you cease to be a subject that is acted upon and instead become a force that acts upon a subject
The framing of the shot at the beginning of each Berserk episode where he does this line is very Edenic.
Just for example: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jxUKZZb4vg0
Just watch the first 20 seconds or so.
Great episode though, if interested.
This is the one where supernatural shit gets real because they run into a demon.
Choices are interesting because they reveal character
The consequences, of course, can be good or bad
Hence why character is oft considered destiny, and thus why moral development was considerd integral to raising children
That’s the kind I am, with the good things.
Hmm, there may be something to this re: the new pagan age.
“that sounds good, i am good, therefore i identify with the thing that sounds good”
You get me.
Those would be great song lyics. Then I could be in the audience going “no one understands me but my band understands me”
Since this superconscious fate sense is probably going to predict who makes it through 2030 it behooves us to actually study this RNG shit.
We may be drawn to it right now for reasons other than pure neophilia.
It would matter a great deal if this sort of selection is genetic or bestowed by the stars.
Just had my shower curtain fall down
Omen, psi efects, angry deities?
Shit is getting spooky
Get you some Jesus.
Great health benefits, and enables supernatural risk-taking behaviors!
Can’t beat the price.
I actually never appreciated the risk-taking aspect of this until now, but even though I was joking I’m also serious.
I just don’t have as much cause to be afraid of spoopy shit.
Like a rubber for entering the spirit world. I’m just not as likely to pick up an infection.
Granted, there’s still good reasons to not engage in that sort of behavior all risky-like. For one, it’s probably not moral.
For another, there’s stuff other than cooties out there.
Funny how this ties into whether choices create destiny or reveal it, and whether fate is active or not
Or whether it dictates the overall flow of the river but not every twist, turn, or eddy
That’s a perspective
Re: fate, I believe free will is about 3% of the effects in life.
That 3% can be subject to compounding interest if it’s used constructively in the same direction over a long time.
So I guess that can be compared to swimming in the ocean where 3% of your movement is up to you.
And the rest is up to the currents.
So it would matter a whole lot whether you could read the currents well and predict whether swimming in a particular direction for years is a useful idea.
Also, if there’s a tidal wave on the horizon it would be nice to have already done some swimming toward a safe place in the last few decades.
This whole line of thought is gratifying to my “clarity IS success” maxim.
Whether through consilience or rationalization, I cannae say.
For want of knowledge my people were lost
“Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he.”
Also, ” Without counsel plans fail, but with many advisers they succeed.”
I think these are important for people with agency.
Freedom to choose carries with the obligation to choose correctly
privilege is the balm to freedom, the sweetness to balance the bitterness of responsibilty. Used well, this power reaps a bountiful harvest, used poorly, it destroys
There’s a narrative that evolves in coming to terms with the power to make one’s own choices.
First there’s the tension of being an infant with no responsibility other than self-expression.
Then you realize you have power as a child and start pushing against the boundaries, and realize you live in a gilded cage.
Later on you have power without boundaries and become resentful. You find yourself wishing someone would MAKE you make the right decisions.
Then, if you make the decision to make good decisions, you find yourself back in that sort of childish frame without real freedom.
The only tension is in how well you can make judgment calls.
13 Blessed are those who find wisdom,
those who gain understanding,
14 for she is more profitable than silver
and yields better returns than gold.
15 She is more precious than rubies;
nothing you desire can compare with her.
16 Long life is in her right hand;
in her left hand are riches and honor.
17 Her ways are pleasant ways,
and all her paths are peace.
18 She is a tree of life to those who take hold of her;
those who hold her fast will be blessed.
This puts me in mind of the “swimming in the currents” metaphor. I’m beginning to sense a theme to this conversation.
Not a bad one. Things have so far gone swimmingly
Oh geez, you must have had a kid or something.
That was terrible.
I’m getting a pain in my stomach.
je ne regrette rien
Oof. Didn’t realize it was THAT bad a pun
Yeah, I’m kidding.
I hope I don’t get appendicitis because I don’t have health insurance as of yesterday.
That would really throw my “boy of destiny” schtick for a loop.
Destiny tends to involve horrific, often existential challenges
Would be a little too fitting
Oh, I don’t want those.
Maybe “boy of some small destiny” is more my speed.
You can have the big destiny. I give it freely, like Covid.
I feel we’ve reached a natural chapter end, even if it was a shorter chapter than usual.
Insofar as we get to choose, I’ll take bigger
Insofar as we don’t, well, come what may
(What she said.)
😁 😁 😁
I’ll take a relatively smaller destiny with lots of money attached.
I’d like to point out one last thing before going.
There’s been an extraordinary accelerated degeneration of the population this year.
I asked an EMT last night and he confirmed every type of call is way, way up from normal.
Aside from that people are just getting really shitty.
So if you haven’t yourself degenerated, you should take that as an enormous compliment.
This has been the best year of all time for judging character.
With that, I’ll bid you adieu…until next week?
And may I post the convo?
Convo may be posted
Can’t do next week. Week after should be alright. Assume yes unless I let you know otherwise
Have a lovely August in the meantime.
You as well. 7/12 through the year already is hard to believe
in years to come, there will be 2 camps: those who proclaim 2020 the worst year ever, and those who think it didn’t go on nearly long enough
I’m in the latter camp, but it’s not exactly opposed to the former view.
I’m similar. I’ll concede it’s been a rough year and there’s plenty of time for things to get really apeshit, but on the whole i can’t say it’s been too bad
Of course, the disconnect between how bad things tend to be versus how bad i can imagine them to be helps one retain a certian level of sanguinity
Whenever anyone says “how could things possibly be worse” i instantly think of at least ten different ways
My trick is being crazy, and having been aware everyone is out of their minds a long time ago.
Takes the sting out of learning both things all at once.