It’s times like these that remind me Vox is likely NOT a paid shill:
Whites with college degrees
58 – Biden
35 – Trump
Whites without college degrees
27 – Biden
59 – Trump
This closely approximates my projected vote shares, which forecasts Trump winning by an electoral college landslide. Trump will win the biggest margin amongst white working class since Harry Truman in 1948. (Not coincidentally, the worst ever polling in any campaign was 1948).
– Election analyst Robert Barnes
Contrary to the ignorant assumptions of the
educatedindoctrinated, who assume that because everyone they know has a college degree, everyone does, only 21 percent of non-Hispanic Whites possess at least a bachelor’s degree.
In other words, the white vote presently looks like this, which is why the media is presenting it in such a convoluted and meaningless form. Of course, most of the missing 10 percent will go to Trump as well, so he can expect to take about two-thirds of the white vote, which is still more than enough to generate a massive Trumpslide given the concentration of the not-white vote.
54 – Trump
36 – Biden
This is why I’ve been recommending that the Republicans change their name to the American Party and end all their futile outreach efforts to not-white voters for over ten years. US politics are now little more than demographics.
The reason I say that is if he were out to deceive people on purpose, he wouldn’t rely on such a ridiculous statistic as “only 21 percent of non-Hispanic Whites possess at least a bachelor’s degree”. That’s obviously not true, and his ego wouldn’t allow making that sort of mistake publicly on purpose, even if he’s already banned all the commenters who could have and would have called him on it.
Here’s the more likely scenario: Vox has been out of touch with the states for a long time and can’t gut check his statistics anymore the way I did when reading the 21% figure. He also wants it to be true re: the polling numbers. That’s all you need to ride the Trump train these days: 1) to be out of touch with reality and 2) wanting it to be true that they’re building the wall and draining the swamp. Your brain writes the rest of the post without you even needing to ask.
The correct statistic is at least 37% of non-Hispanic whites have a bachelor’s degree. If you plug this value into Vox’s formula instead, here’s the real result for all whites:
50.12 – Trump
38.47 – Biden
Whether the polls are good or not is immaterial. He appealed to them believing they show a Trumpslide, which is an embarrassing mistake. Therefore I believe he sincerely believes it. This is a comfort to me, albeit a small one. Remember, this is the guy who was expecting a red wave in 2018.