A bit of speculation about the HRC declassification. I scanned through it and it’s very exciting stuff, i.e. good campaign material. The problem is I’m a cynic and I don’t believe for a minute that there are real plans to arrest Hillary. If I were writing this as a TV season script, this paints me into a corner if Trump wins reelection. This is assuming I don’t want to lose the Q people. They’ve shown a nearly infinite capacity for blue balls but I think this level of excitement, followed by blue balls, would take a lot of them out of the fantasy. So either I don’t expect to need their suspension of disbelief for much longer (i.e. Yellowstone), or I expect Biden to win so that Q people will have a political excuse to continue being extremely online (and politically engaged), or I’m making a mistake. Or maybe I’m not being cynical *enough* about the capacity of my audience to ignore information they don’t like (i.e. Q influencers, like flat earth, are a more grassroots phenomenon and require less pilpul to herd than I’m comfortable admitting).
Recent years have taught me that the primary mistake amateurs make in our considerations of intelligence operations is underestimating the level of talent, organization, and tradecraft. For example, I originally pegged Trump as a narcissist and an idiot, when only the former is true. Contra Q, these people are NOT stupid (though intelligence assets, e.g. Wolf Blitzer on Jeopandy!, are obviously quite stupid by design). Contra the common assumption, organized conspiracies are the norm (with the notable exception of white males being oppressed in anarchotyrannical, propagandistic societies), are the most powerful agents in human affairs and history, and are finely tuned with the help of big data and constant A/B testing. Since the Iron Law of Bureaucracy suggests institutions don’t do endgame planning, and I don’t expect this to be a mistake, I’m going to put the majority of the weight on the probability that Biden gets elected. To that end, I’m now betting 3:2 Biden > Trump.
The question now is how do I, the director, get Trump to manage the anger immediately after the election? Probably by promising a continuing “underground” Q resistance movement that can be allowed to peter out eventually and be replaced by whatever the next TV show is.