Disclaimer: this happening feels 20% weird in the way that last year’s housing bubble felt 75% weird and the 24/7 cable news coverage of the Epstein assassination felt 100% weird. That means it could be what it appears in large part, but I feel there are shenanigans in the tapestry that only an FTN deep dive could unravel.
On to the meat of the post:
Do you think Trump would have faced the same result in Afghanistan had he had a 2nd term?-A filthy casual gamer
Yes, I think the decision was made for purely economic reasons. We can’t afford to occupy Afghanistan the way we could in 2005. They’re worried that the cattle are getting restless about worsening economic conditions, and the control systems for a restless population are behind schedule. No one is playing stocks or real estate or otherwise betting their money on Trump taking office. I think a lot of people really thought he would 6 months ago, but now they’re just saying it out of habit. (I’m referring to Trump mania as one of the control systems.)
The Covid thing is behind schedule. I think BLM hurt police and military recruitment more than they were expecting. They may have actually thought nonwhites and women would step in after running all the white men out. Offshoring and mercenary hiring/firing practices have created a huge brain drain in the tech industries that support frivolous war efforts.
Pulling out of Afghanistan may reduce inflation by as much as a few percent. Remember, war is the product of scarcity * diversity * proximity. Scarcity and diversity are both going up. Proximity is possibly steady or slightly declining, I think people may be moving out of cities a little bit. They don’t want uncontrolled open conflict, they want controlled symbolic conflict and increased surveillance powers.
So I think they decided to bite the bullet and take the global humiliation of admitting defeat in Afghanistan, even if that makes America look weak to the other powers. That’s the rational explanation, anyway. Who’s to say whether the guy calling the shots on this one is properly rational. For all I know it was to fulfill a prophecy from some Kabbalah offshoot sect. But remember, they have Palantir to tell them how many people are disenchanted with the political situation. It updates instantly so they get real-time feedback, and they run AI simulations of public opinion before rolling this stuff out.
More on that here: https://therightstuff.biz/2021/08/07/ftn-429-trickle-down-dissident-panopticon/. I can’t remember the name of the organization that actually runs these simulations, but they did that one in 2019 about a novel coronavirus.