Superforecasting the ITZ (Owl convo)

Oh, I wanted to mention we should invent ITZ superforecasting.
I.e. List public services, then predict the odds of each service experiencing an outage of length T in a particular region.

ooooooooo
‘s a good idea

Before such and such time.
Example question: Odds of Detroit experiencing a loss of potable water for at least a week before 2025.
Then you look at the supply chain for city water treatment or whatever.

we should write some of these down because this is a really good idea
i.e power out southern california, major pipeline in east coast shut down from cyberattack…etc

Public services list

  • Law enforcement
  • Internet
  • Electricity
  • Water
  • Groceries
  • Highways
  • Gas supply
  • Banking
  • Emergency medical response
  • Natural gas in regions that have that
  • Hell, Amazon deliveries and postal service should count

yeah, that’s an underrated one
snow removal

  • Government websites are niche but important in the short term. The IRS site was down yesterday when I did my FAFSA so I had to put in my tax numbers manually.

In that case you still have to comply with the laws (e.g. DMV) but you might not be able to because of changes at the branch level.
I had a hell of a time getting a driver’s license recently because they installed kiosks “for Covid” and the network was built by pajeets, so it couldn’t handle the workload.
If law enforcement went away first then who cares, but we’re never that lucky. Or more to the point, TPTB need crowd-beaters more than they need a timely DMV.

noncompliance with federal regulation due to collapse of enabling infrastructure
that sounds like a historical pattern, come to think of it
oh, related thought
civil war not happening but secession-lite sort of happens when state governers just decide not to follow federal mandate
that’s not a prediction but an observation
when desantis tells fedgov to fuck off and the head of the oklahoma national guard says it won’t enforce vax mandates, that is a kind of secession
and if fedgov doesn’t fight those battles, they basically cede the right to do so in the future (not necessarily in practice, but it does make it harder going forward)

https://www.vice.com/en/article/y3vv47/pentagon-blames-biden-newsom-for-us-inaction-in-breakaway-republic-crisis
Already happening.

right, it is already happening
it won’t be the story of 2022 but it’ll be one of those deep currents that’ll surface more and more over the decade

Do you know what the food inspection process is like?
I.e. Maybe we continue to have groceries, but you can’t trust them not to poison you anymore.

that follows

That actually sounds more like a logistics problem, where you have people lying about how long meat was on a truck.
I don’t think we’ll see a mass breakdown of that [Ed: implying more of a rise in stochastic incidents over time], though we might see hotspots where refrigeration was down and people took their chances.
Oh, cell phone service.
That’s a big one we take for granted.

ooo, can’t beleive we forgot that one
my understanding is basically every federal emergency plan relies on cell service still being up
terrible fucking planning

Imagine my shock.
Would you put payment processors in a different category from banking services?
As I understand it, there are only two (Visa and something else) and everybody else piggybacks.
I think I’d split groceries and non-food supplies into two different categories.
So maybe you can get milk but not chainsaw blades.

maybe we call them two seperate categories of financial services
yeah, not getting food and not getting necessary car parts ar two different problems

Like “access to your savings” versus “ability to pay for things online”.

though one will inevitably bleed into the other

Right, and both depend on somewhat similar supply chains (i.e. trucks and highways).
But it’s easy to imagine a world without fresh produce because other states are hostile countries.
Where you can still get spare parts from China through Amazon.

very believable
it’s hard to make predicitons about what exactly will be scarce/expensive/whatever but the only suretly is the next 3-5 years are going to be weird

Hence…
SUPERFORECASTING
ITZ the newest craze in prepping.
All right, I think I’m done thinking up public services. Maybe throw in transportation for the urban degenerates, but who cares about that.
Standard time spans to worry about:

Loss of X for a(n)…
…day
…week
…month
…year
…indefinite period

And standard prediction time spans…

Loss of X for time T before…
…a month from now
…a year from now
…three years from now
…five years from now
…ten years from now

About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
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3 Responses to Superforecasting the ITZ (Owl convo)

  1. Zeb Zebley says:

    excellent convo.
    thoughts on the following?

    geographic spheres of influence and the rise of protectorate suburbs (Ruralia vs. Urbania?)

    Zone-specific ethnic cleansing ex. Hipsters in Harlem, [redacted] in everywhere else

    the rise of a retooling class /inventive scavengers with mechanical engineering degrees

    the desacration of tHe PrAcTiCe oF mEdiciNe, the mainstreaming of medical technical knowledge via exposure to injuries and the drafting of vets and medics into Doctor roles. the resurgence of folk medicine, making do, and the DIY x-ray machine

    going off grid improving service quality, and media of technical knowledge moving from cloud to SSHDs and offline PCs again

    shifts towards racial solidarity, phrenology, eugenic breeding programs for animals and people

    the rising up of gamers

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      >geographic spheres of influence and the rise of protectorate suburbs (Ruralia vs. Urbania?)

      Haven’t seen it yet. There was the Ken and Karen thing in response to BLM riots, but nothing quite like white organized crime families yet. It’s still pretty early in the process though, seeing a tiny bit of pushback at the state level on the vax stuff. I think the gulag will really have to be underway before white people get it, as in actual deaths by starvation.

      > Zone-specific ethnic cleansing ex. Hipsters in Harlem, [redacted] in everywhere else

      Nope, not until after fifty years of white extermination, and even then it won’t be an extermination so much as segregation. See the Soviet Union for a model.

      > the rise of a retooling class /inventive scavengers with mechanical engineering degrees

      That’s a cope. You’ll see scavengers all right, but they won’t be high-IQ.

      > the desacration of tHe PrAcTiCe oF mEdiciNe, the mainstreaming of medical technical knowledge via exposure to injuries and the drafting of vets and medics into Doctor roles. the resurgence of folk medicine, making do, and the DIY x-ray machine

      All of that has effectively happened. Just assume the future in that realm will be like the present, except moreso. And I wouldn’t go anywhere near a DIY X-ray machine, one tiny little software bug and those things will cook you (ref. http://sunnyday.mit.edu/papers/therac.pdf).

      > going off grid improving service quality, and media of technical knowledge moving from cloud to SSHDs and offline PCs again

      To some extent that’s already happened, but there will always be a darkweb because only autistic white men can make computers work and, for better and/or worse, we tend to be free speech absolutists by nature.

      > shifts towards racial solidarity, phrenology, eugenic breeding programs for animals and people

      Yes to the racial solidarity and phrenology, no to the eugenic breeding programs. IQs are dropping like a rock, they aren’t going to go back up for a long time, low-IQ people are more instinctual, and people instinctually distrust eugenic breeding programs. The Chinese will lose interest when their average IQs drop below 100, which won’t take very long with their current breeding patterns.

  2. Pingback: Initial foray into superforecasting power grid reliability for a particular region (Owl convo) | Aeoli Pera

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