More predictions (Owl convo)

Everybody’s got predictions and everybody’s sick to death of everybody else’s predictions, but Owl and I have been nailing it for years and you can’t pay for that kind of foresight.

the business model thing might be worth a shot

But you’re not wrong in suggesting the consumer model is looking very different.
What’s the next craze? Independent rating agencies? Curators of free content over content creators?
What do people do when 2022 is over and no one believes American democracy is coming back?

that’s a key question to…pretty much everything

We know stress is going up, so what correlates with stress?

most will blue-pill and cling to the matrix
retreating to tv, vidya, and whatnot

From Dutton and what we’ve already seen: cults.

though that will be amde harder by supply chain disruption and food scarcity

Social manias.

we’ve predicted cults before and I see no reason to doubt that, with the caveat that it won’t look like previous cults/social manias

Impulse consumption of comfort goods and services.
Right, I mean cults as in Q, Covid, BLM.

probably something more like rapid cycling through increasingly nonsensical beleifs
100% agree on impulse purchases
yeah, we’re basically talking about the same thing in different wrods

What’s interesting is I’m seeing more bread, less circuses.
Everybody prefers their own little circus.

i see that as more circuses, not less
more choice of circuses and more ability to create your own

Well yeah, but I mean no Olympics, no Grammies, etc.
Nothing at scale.

the island of the lotus-eaters maximized by tech and “guided free will”
again, we’re still talking about the same thing…fewer SHARED circuses, but more personalized circuses

So: health salience, low trust, religious sentiment in general, EXTREME extrinsic ideological signaling, consumption of soma (material and immaterial), distrust (and, paradoxically, extreme gullibility)…this is all pretty easy.
What comes after the average person runs out of money?
I imagine runaway crime.
Unlike black people, white people generally commit crime due to economic stress.
Standard drug crime followed by stealing.
With that comes geographic consolidation.
When the first white drug cartel successfully fights off an FBI raid, that’ll be the beginning of the end.
At that point it’s drones or go home.

smells like a2023/2024 type event, but guess we’ll see how things go with the coming food shortages

It’ll take a couple more years yet for white drug cartels to have anti-tank weapons.
That’s when you really have to have domestic use of missiles and drones.

it occurs to me that defrauding the government is going to be increasingly easy as it adopts increasingly idiotic approaches and just blindly prints money to fix everthing
that’ll be the start of some cartels

I believe we previously discussed selling them security software 😁

i remember that now

Keep your 100% fash-free certification!

Better start building it now, demand is going to be intense over the next few years

public static void main(String[] args) {
System.out.println(“Fascists detected…”);
System.out.println(“Terminating employment…”);
System.out.println(“Scan complete!”);


To sum up:
2022 Half-hearted political mania
2023 Full-hearted cult mania and binge “investing” (Year of the Grift)

sounds about right to me

2024 Everybody wakes up cuffed to a motel bed next to a goat and their money is gone.

as we’ve already mentioned, in humor there is truth

Presidential election gets out of hand that year, mask comes off and doesn’t go back on.
2024 will be the year when narcissistic rage turns into a psychotic break.
There are only a couple of ways to deal with homeless psychotics demanding the America they were promised.
TPTB will act accordingly.
2025 will herald the real economic despair.

i fear you are correct

That’s when TPTB will realize it’s time to loot and scoot, but they’re lazy so it’ll take them a year or two to really get moving.
“Jared, why haven’t you sold all that mining equipment yet?”
“My administrative assistant always did it! I don’t know how this purchasing software works!”
“It’s just a purchase order Jared!”

yeah, the coming collapse of corporate competence would be comic were it not so catastrophic

That said, if someone were planning a serious scavenging campaign, imagine if the mining equipment were missing when the Chinese work crew comes to put it on trucks.

do we even have mining equipment in this conutry anymore?

Not a lot, but I guarantee you the remainder will be sold overseas to family friends at fire sale prices.
We’ll be back to the tool age, effectively.

Would not surprise me

I’m imagining empty buildings where Chrysler assembly plants used to be. I mean every machine moved to an identical floor layout in grorious China.
But again, that sort of thing takes a little while.

well with port closures in china that buys a bit more time


the downside, of course, is no replacement parts when thigns fail
still, at least you still have the stuff

That’s already true. You can’t get bike parts for a million dollars right now.
China will have spare parts because they make ’em, the real problem will be when they realize they need real engineers.

well you only need a few, and surely they’ll be able to procure enough from around the world

My long-term plan has always been to learn Chinese and write software for a foreign company. Their HR departments are saner.

I wonder if “the international order” will place human capital controls on key tech talent in the coming years

It’s easier to learn Mandarin than to make a thot want to have sex with a redhead.
Which is how they make hiring decisions.
The question re: human capital controls isn’t so much desire or political will as long-sightedness.
Of course they want that and will pursue it, but it requires burning the world, so how quickly will they burn?
Pretty fast, I’d guess, based on dropping Jewish IQs.

Depends on how desperate they get, as well as whether the world goes up in flames at some point

They’ll run out of brains before they run out of capital.

WW3 is an easy excuse to shut down internaitonal travel

At what point do they realize they need to have some prosperity to compete with upstarts?

my wild-ass guess is human capial restictions are a 2025 thing, but there’s not actually any way to know

I’d predict work mandates, more precisely.

well, that requires reinstating some kind of mertiocracy and there are too many special interest groups in this country opposed ot that
work mandates is interesting

“You’re the only pipeline engineer left, fix this pipeline FOR THE PEOPLE or we’ll shoot you in the fucking head.”

the secret of the SCOTUS ruling on CMS is that if you get government funds, you can be told what to do
so is there alogic that syas if you took a stimulus payment, you have to do what the gov tells you?
very strong argument if you implment some sort of UBI in response to a coming food crisis

Right, it won’t be so direct as shooting, but by the end it will be as direct as not receiving food while in a prison cell.

agreed. it’ll be based on changing previously agreed-upon definitions

I think you’re making it a little too general though. The fact is that most people aren’t useful and don’t mind enslaving the tool users, so you don’t need a universal rule.
Just “you’re being selfish” and all the useless eaters agreeing.
Imagine the water sanitation plant has stopped working.

i.e. c0vitt ,where vaccinated over 6 months ago and unvaccinated restrictions are the same

Everybody in the town that needs the water is going to agree that pressing a few people into service against their will is justified.


And prison otherwise because “they’re being selfish”.
Public humiliation, withholding food, the works.

“the few must sacrifice for the good of the many” is going to be a major moral assumption for the next 5-15 years

It won’t take much torture most of the time but it’ll be on the table.

“not being able to eat isn’t coercion, you still have a choice, but we won’t save you from the consequences of your actions”

Right. It’s not abuse, it’s just nature taking its course while you’re locked up.
But don’t take this as a passive aggressive attitude. Americans are plenty aggressive-aggressive when they’re given an official outlet.
E.g. “Glass the Middle East.”
Enhanced interrogation and the Patriot Act both had majority support.

agreed, americans are very happy to go apeshit once given official sanction to go after a target

I think the “enhanced interrogation” one is particularly useful to keep in mind when rightists are preaching about truth and Orweillianism.

9/11 is an interesting comparison to now because that as also an event that ushered in major changes to the governing apparatus, but there was far more support for the changes back then
i wonder if there was a mistaken assumption that you could achieve an equivalent level of social unity during this crisis
robably was somewhere

If we use a military analogy, somebody’s budget always depends on fighting the previous war.

someone (everyone) got where they are now by fighting the previous war
we have the best people (for yesterday’s job)

About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

7 Responses to More predictions (Owl convo)

  1. Somalian pirate MM says:

    It doesn’t even have to be ‘for profit’; our institutions seem to take glee in poor decisions and in obvious wasting of resources for their own sake.

    Take a look at the the scrapping of the four Kittyhawk-class conventional supercarriers (and the nuclear cruisers, as another example).

    The United Sates now has ZERO reserve carriers, and the fleet has reduced from 15 to 10….

    Much has been said in dissident circles of America’s over-reliance on the carrier, but these ships were already bought and paid for. There was no reason not to keep them in the mothball fleet.
    Hell the navy PAID to scrap the John F Kennedy and the Kittyhawk! It was one cent each, but the point remains; nobody is even making money from this shit.

    Boats take a long time to make. You want to keep a few extra around, especially in a de-industrialized nation with incredibly long build-times to replace any vessel lost.
    The ancient Greeks would house-over their triremes in between wars, and non-obsolete ships (certainly at least capital ships) have been kept in reserve by navies since before Napoleon.

    It does potentially tell us some things, though. The United States may not be supposed to win the next big war according to ‘the plan’. Even if it is currently acting as their greatest tool of power-projection. Yeah, maybe it’s a mistake- but it can’t be counted on.

    • Scapa Flow possum MM says:

      Aeoli, are you aware of the concept of ‘pre-nuclear steel’? Thats a fun read.

    • DaveR says:

      ‘the plan’

      Certain parties intend for their to be no more wars, just a global slave plantation. The 2030 WEF plan, AKA ‘the Beast’ system.
      Another party will ensure there is a war to end wars. Wars and rumors of wars, that plan.
      Amerika won’t even turn up to war, as zomibie hyperinflation famine collapse will see it collapse in a terrible heap.

  2. Texas Arcane says:

    Hypersonic drones have long replaced carriers on the battlefield. Some nations have not got the memo yet. I know, I personally worked on some of the attempted retrofits of traversal guns on the decks of carriers. Nobody like my simulations because they showed there were no step motors on earth that could turn guns with sufficient speed to counter more than one or two hypersonic drones headed straight for carriers. All you had to do was bring a third one in at the same time from another angle and the carrier was doomed. Likely the Chinese would send a dozen to take out a carrier. America has never been better prepared to fight Hitler but as for WW3 they are going to lose and get their ass waxed right off the planet.

  3. Pingback: Re: work mandates prediction | Aeoli Pera

  4. Pingback: Discerning pity party-style death wishes from unrepentant “I fully and consciously intend to sin against God”-style death wishes | Aeoli Pera

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s