Midterm predictions

This is actually really good: https://www.state.gov/briefings-foreign-press-centers/understanding-the-american-voter-in-2022


  • Democrats maintain majority in the Senate.
  • Republicans pick up a very slight majority in the House. I.e. Not more than 30 seats.

Should do a turnout prediction…All right, I’m guessing turnout is between 2014 and 2018 numbers. Higher than 2014, lower than 2018. My reasoning for this is conspiratorial: there’s a massive marketing push for artificial political engagement among Republicans with things like the abortion ban, and this will actually increase Democrat turnout somewhat. But it’s not genuine rage and engagement like in 2018, which was in response to Trump. Marketing to Republicans will increase turnout among Democrats because Republicans vote as a matter of conscientiousness, whereas young progressives vote as personal expression. So if you imagine the election had been the day after the abortion ban, Republicans would have voted at the same rates because “it’s what you do” but you’d have the alarmingly large demographic of feral young women out baying for blood. Whereas normally, right now, with these young people not at all engaged, you’d expect them to be conked out on Xanax on election day.

The trouble for TPTB is that even though Republicans are voting dutifully, they’re very discontented. Something like 85% of them think Biden stole the election. I don’t think that’s legitimately dangerous because these people are orderly uber alles, but TPTB are scared to death of this. So they’re running a fake and gay marketing campaign to get Republicans bought into the system again. I don’t think it’s going to work because the “faith and flag” group is already bought in (i.e. Q-tards), the “committed conservatives” are becoming vaguely aware from financial market manipulation that the system is rigged, the populist right isn’t going to budge, and the ambivalent right isn’t activated by partisan issues like the abortion ban.

The only big question that might be worth thinking through is whether TPTB will throw some red meat to the disengaged Republicans by prosecuting some of the Democrat voter fraud machine. I think no, because it’s too…what am I looking for here…That would be striking at the actual business of the thing. But it’s not impossible. Sometimes you gotta make drastic moves and hurt the feelings of the managerial class. But they’ve been so reliant on pure gaslighting for so long (e.g. the “Ghost of Kiev” Marvel movie) that I think they’ve overspecialized and the golden hammer is all they know and trust.

Another possibility is the Republicans industrialize their voter fraud machine. But you need the right kind of personalities in large numbers for that, so I see it being a very localized phenomenon. GOP voter fraud machine might be possible somewhere with a large number of Peter Thiel’s smart homosexual Republicans. Anyway, the most likely scenario is everyone continues to double-down on their preferred brand of self-delusion. I think we’re riding the 2021 train to the end without any turns. 2020 was the end of plausible deniability, so it’s all Schelling points from here on out.

About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
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7 Responses to Midterm predictions

  1. ShadoHand says:

    Heres my prediciton:

    Normies, Narcissists, and Idiots are going to follow their standard behavioral patterns and the ship is going to keep taking on water. Nothing is going to change. Nothing. The situation will not improve.

  2. MM says:

    I don’t really disagree with any of that, but keep in mind that the majority of people are still checked out. Having the highest inflation in 50 years (and thats fudged) can have potentially strong consequences in regards to Independents, undecided, and lower income (and wyte wamen with chillin).

    Or people are so unhealthy and retarded in this country they just can’t be bothered.

    In any case, itz happening.

  3. MM says:

    slightly ot-

    great big money magic idea:
    personalized organs (like a digimon), organs as pets.
    organs as nfts
    organs as decentralized blockchain

    “dont cut off your limbs, add limbs” (deadspace isaac)
    ^motto to run the office by (sentient organs can take care of groceries,cofee, cooking)

  4. Sturm Bringer says:

    Who cares if the ass or head of the uni party gets x or y percentage, its the same darn party. This entire political system needs to be torn down, foundation and all.

    Disenfranchisement with the latest fraud could present the opportunity to push the reality that jew rule(democracy) is wicked, naughty and foul. One wisemen is worth less than five idiots and all that.

    Left and right, may as well be pepsi or cola, as descriptive terms they are meaningless as well as “liberal” and “conservative”, liberal with what other men’s treasure, conserving what the 80’s, 90’s, 2000s?

    How to pull our Folk out of this elephant’s ass of a cesspool? Attack the traitors, put pressure on our own ala Algeria’s rebellion. Traitor first, then the enemy.

    Ps. Why did you call them TPTB and not the jew?

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      Because it’s copypasta from a normiechat. This is already a little scandalous for the original audience.

    • ShadoHand says:

      `How to pull our Folk out of this elephant’s ass of a cesspool?`

      I hate to break it to you. We aint voting our way out of this. Anyone still running on the old patterns (i.e. Job, car, house) is an enemy.

      • Sturm Bringer says:

        Paraphrasing “In a good goverment those people(hard working, by the book) are a boon. In a bad goverment, they give such a state a veneer of authority and prolong it.” (Very much off memory)

        And yes voting is very well a near doomed exercise.

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