Initial foray into superforecasting power grid reliability for a particular region (Owl convo)


Superforecast loss of power for example region <- this would be a hard one but very important

any regions on your mind?

Something useful for prepping, because that’s the purpose of the exercise.
And I doubt many of these analyses will be done, because even with a template to follow it’s a lot of work.
That means somewhere rural.
Preppers be like “Hurr durr collapse is gonna be candy and unicorns for me, gonna show those DEMONRATS what for, hurr durr,” and I’d like to disabuse them of that notion also.
California is the future, and it will soon be distributed. And the normies aren’t going to wake up, they’re going to lie down and take it like good little bitches.
We are all Northern Californians now.
I want to end up in Western Michigan, let’s do a rural place 60 minutes outside one of the cities.

Ok. I know basically nothing about the area but let’s see what we can draw up

I was thinking yesterday there may be studies out there for this kind of thing, so it may pay to be a bit opportunistic here.
I.e. We should look for work that’s already been done on the subject and see if any of the selected regions fits the bill.

So…economic case studies, analysis of demographics, that sort of thing?

Yeah, and it just now occurs to me these would be especially prevalent in safety-critical situations like hospitals and nursing homes.
Hospitals have backup power, but there will be risk analyses for situations where the outage outlasts the generators.
“The results of the study shows that most weaknesses of the preparedness of hospitals are represented by inadequately addressed reserves of fuel for the main backup power supply, poor knowledge of employees who are insufficiently retrained, and old backup power supplies (even 35 years in some cases)”

This is good
And, of course, you would want to look at the power grid in general

So power, food, demographics, ability to withstand disruptions (this will be key)
What else do we need to consider?

Are we only talking about risk factors for power outages?
Shit, that’s a good Google search term.

no, was thinking more broadly
yeah, let’s focus just on risk factors for power outages
Good references section in that one.
This may also be a good “phone a friend” situation.
My sister’s friend’s fiance is an electrical power distribution engineer.

I’d stick that sort of thing into the “preparation” aspect, not the forecasting aspect, but it’s relevant
It’s the “what to do in context” as opposed to the “context”
That one is the holy grail.

Yeha, definitely going to have to dig into this a bit later
Big picture, it would be interesting to get numbers on trends in electricians and similar fields, maybe even closures of small businesses
Nah, that’s probably chasing castles n the sky on this

ECEI = European Critical Electricity Infrastructure
Taken from

Little late for saving Europe at this point

Well yeah, but it was the only hit on libgen for “electric power system reliability

Oh hang on, small changes to the search terms bring up other books.

Was being a bit facetious lol
Yeha, i think this is a “return to later after research topic”

“According to the overview of recent electric power blackouts and near
misses in Appendix 1, the following factors may pose risks to system
x Technical failure of critical grid components. The unanticipated outage
of critical infrastructure components such as generators, transmission
lines or transformers (due to causes such as e.g. ageing, overheating,
extreme duty) may put the system into emergency conditions.
x Inadequate inspection / maintenance practices. Inadequate maintenance
may lead to an increase in equipment failure.
x Adverse operation of line protection devices. The automatic
disconnection of one or more critical transmission network components
due to an apparent fault may accelerate the geographic spread of a
failure and reduce the available time for intervention by an operator.
x Too sensitive settings of generator protection devices. The “early”
disconnection of generators because of protection devices settings,
which are more sensitive than required by the grid connection rules
regarding frequency and voltage disturbances, adversely affects voltage
and frequency control.
x Inefficient Load Shedding. Inadequate automatic or manual load
shedding can actually contribute to the development of a blackout.
x Insufficient cooperation and communication between operators.
Inadequate joint emergency procedures and data exchange among the
involved TSOs, and between the TSOs and the distribution and
generation operators respectively, can be a critical factor in case of a
x Insufficient system overview by operators. Insufficient real-time
informat- ion about the power system may lead to inadequate
assessments of the situation followed by inadequate countermeasures
after a contingency.
x Adverse behaviour of the operator. Unanticipated human failure by
operators (generation, transmission or distribution) can influence the
extent of a power failure.
The following factors were identified to complicate and delay the
restoration after a widespread blackout:
x inability of generators to switch on the house-load operation,
x insufficient generators with black-start capabilities, and
x failure of electricity-dependent telecommunication.”

Still not finding much in the way of quantified risk factors…
But I’m convinced it’s out there.

About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
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3 Responses to Initial foray into superforecasting power grid reliability for a particular region (Owl convo)

  1. ShadoHand says:

    Are you getting energy spikes? Its getting close to fall. Equinox is the 23rd. Are you feeling the seasons changing? Id like to get more data on this. Personally, I can feel the energy shift. It may just lowered activity levels causing the increased energy, but I sense it at a deeper level. Its been more pronounced since living basically outside this time of year since 2018. 2019 I spent from sun up till sundown outside. Same in 2020. Doing extreme manual labor. Massive energy from being outside as the seasons changed. Last year I was up for 36 hours a couple of days with zero loss of cognitive function due to working indoors and no extreme manual labor.

    Neanderthals cycle in fall and spring=Bipolar 2
    Sapiens cycles in summer and winter=Bipolar 1

    I cant write a book up right now, but what are your observations.

  2. Suh-Sigh-Ettay says:

    Wait. Is the calendar drifting relative to the stars again? Cuz I was told that they fixed that during the previous update.

  3. Risky business says:

    Believe it or not; risk analysis comes up with bullshit causes that aren’t important. I think they just make people feel good about doing the work.

    The meat of the analysis is probability, consequence reduction, and mitigation.

    Gulf Coast power loss for 1 month is a 10-year return event. 1 day is a 1-year return event.

    Consequences is interesting. Walk around your house and write down all the stuff that won’t work without electricity. Ask yourself is this a big deal or catestrophic? Like a freezer is BFD after a day.

    Gas pumps don’t work without power; BFD. Generally, water, sewer, and NG have back-up gens that will last a week. After that is catastrophic.

    I consider camping gear my primary mitigation. Rocket stove and cedar fence will last a month. I have manual yard tools; even a mower, fuck those mosquitoes.

    After that shit starts getting Neolithic.

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