Electric truck mandates would cause directly cause supply chain breakdown and produce collapse

This was a good exchange. There are some edits to make it more useful. Prerequisite: https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2022/09/06/climate-change-as-probihition-for-fossil-fuels/

A quick reminder that the housing market and the economy aren’t 100% the same thing, just mostly.
The real collapse is when it’s no longer profitable to drive a truck.
And that’s on schedule for California by 2025…[Ed: 2035 is the 100% changeover date, but we’re talking profitable, not legal.]

from my little understanding, rising interest rates and recession are the inevitable solution to the artificial boom of stimulus
the solution to high prices is high prices

Historically, the solution has been to go to war, then issue a new currency.
I don’t know that war is on the table though, so we’ll probably just pick on some tiny country, go bankrupt, and hopefully get conquered very gently by a 3rd, large country.
E.g. We start a forever war with Venezuela, power grid at home fails, and Russia buys us a new one under the condition that their people run it.
That’s the smart way, it will definitely be a lot slower and dumber than that.
Speaking of, if there are any citrus-producing Midwestern companies you might unironically invest in that around the time California tries to do electric trucks.

i don’t think MI can grow citrus. plenty of other fruit production though. Welch’s has a bunch of farms in my area, but it looks like they’re a privately held co-op

I’m just saying that the man who can get orange juice shall be king.
So what’s happening is, as I mentioned, legit trucking companies won’t be profitable because only organized crime and businesses with special government exceptions (but I repeat myself) will be allowed to use gas engines.
That means California oranges become like Cuban cigars, effectively under embargo.
But a side effect of organized crime is old-school economics starts coming back in, complete with labor strikes, strike-breaking murders and kidnappings, and all sorts of things that drive prices up in a vicious cycle.

Anyway, the takeaway for the Dark Brandon crowd is we need to vote out these vote riggers.

I’ll moderate this to say that electric trucks won’t necessarily be the big one because it could be done in other ways, like bringing back Covid shutdowns, but if gas trucks get the prohibition treatment according to the stated plan then that would necessarily cause a price spiral.

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17 Responses to Electric truck mandates would cause directly cause supply chain breakdown and produce collapse

  1. ShadoHand says:

    Whose going to be responsible for installing charging stations at apartment buildings? Every single tenant is going to need access to a charging station, or else they wont be able to charge their cars. Plus what about landlords who just rent out a house with multiple apartments in it that arent bound by the normal written code? Theres no way they are going to responsible enough to install a charging station for every tenant.

    Theres literally no way this will work becaus the the you are going to have to run electrical lines to every parking spot. You cant just have have a single charging station for 10 people living in an apartment complex? Its unfeasible.

    What about Truck stops? Hotels? Or even just the grocery store?

    Electric vehicles arent going to work.

  2. MM says:

    Not enough lithium, not enough grid, not enough chargers, not enough resources in general.

    Especially once world multipolarity gets much more serious. The CHIPS Act was a preview of what will happen to bring supply chains home. Another example- 90+ percent of pharmaceuticals are made in China. So… how many hundreds of billions does that bill get? (with commiserate unavoidable re-ignition of inflation…)

    Western supply chains must be re-jiggered just to keep the lights on in the future (the expenditures in Europe will necessarily be monstrous, once the reality of this winter and the total destruction of Nord Streams 1 and 2 are factored in- not just one winter’s disruption. To say nothing of the necessary expenditures of the next decade… Also- USA LNG tankers will not be enough. New LNG terminal ETA 18 mos. More fundamentally, gas needs pressurization… LNG will never be a 1 to 1 replacement for a pipeline off a natural underground reserve. Yes the new Polish pipeline… and the north african one will prob happen. Nuclear (and thus Uranium- see URA, etc) will eventually be big if ppl actually want to reduce carbon for whatever reason since it is the only viable ‘green’ option).

    See- Zoltan Poszar and his fantastic piece on Bretton Woods 3. I will email it anyone if they ask.

    >A quick reminder that the housing market and the economy aren’t 100% the same thing, just mostly.

    The housing market has the same relationship to the ACTUAL economy as the stock market.
    Which is to say very little, aside from the spending it promotes via “The wealth effect” and of course as collateral for debt (and in the past- keeping ppl out of rent slavery, which is obv OVER)
    Which is why the fed is trying to crash the stock market, and RE, to reverse this psychological magic that gets the American citizen (read: sentient bacterial colony) to, as Jim Cramer would say, “BUY!BUY!BUY!”

    Its just another tool to make the American ppl feel wealthy so they don’t revolt. That’s the whole point of QE, the fed, “line just go up if u wait me so smart”, etc. Keep them dumb and happy enough with the lie of the “wealth effect” (what happens when even just the boomers have to redeem this supposed wealth? Not enough resources for the amount of financial ‘assets’) until the demographics shift.

    This is the most true for the upper class and upper middle class (the only ppl that actually could ever pose a threat to TPTB in an organized way). Their perceived funny money “wealth” is what keeps them on the plantation. Because people are merely animals with almost no actual self control, just narratives that pacify them and add grandeur while they simply meet their base needs along the journey towards the confrontation with what is likely non existence.
    Stocks in particular:
    For anyone out of the loop-

    Hartnett (who called march 2020 right when so many of us got it wrong):

    “we are tactical bears…“short twos & spoos” ‘til Halloween…SPX 3333 to force “policy panic” (Nov 16th G20),
    then rally; “Big Low” not ‘til Q1 when recession/credit shocks = “peak Fed”, “peak yields”, “peak US$”; trade of ‘23 short $, long EM, small cap, cyclicals.”

    And I’m still tempted to stick to what I was saying earlier this year… its going to be worse than this. But Hartnett hasn’t been wrong in a long time now.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      > The housing market has the same relationship to the ACTUAL economy as the stock market.

      Yeah, I got that wrong. I had a normie brain moment because I was addressing a mortgage banker and a home improvement salesman, so my brain empathized to the exclusion of truthfulness.

  3. Zeb Zebley says:

    Aeoli, this is off topic, but I’m visiting Wisconsin now and if you can doompoast from here, you’d be RaHoWaPoasting in my east-c0ast metropolitan hovel. I’m considering moving here at the first opportunity. your women are 3 points whiter and even your blacks are civil.

  4. furor kek tonicus ( Britney Griner solution: Putin should send her to Singapore ... with ALL of her luggage ) says:

    “i don’t think MI can grow citrus.”
    why not? they’re doing it in Nebraska.

    • Aeoli Pera says:

      > why not? they’re doing it in Nebraska.

      I think the question is whether it can be done profitably in Michigan. Aside from being much colder than Nebraska on average, we get wild swings in temperature due to the lakes (i.e. much higher standard deviation). So sure, you can probably still grow oranges in a greenhouse, but it’s an open question whether you can pay off the natural gas bill for heating it.

      • furor kek tonicus ( proud to have a foreign policy that keeps Hunter's nose candied ) says:

        comparing Kearney NE with Grand Rapids, Kearney has a higher avg high from Dec-Feb but it also has a lower low. and it’s the colder avg ( and peak ) Low that kills citrus.
        remember NE, especially out west, has quite a bit more altitude than MI. it’s also not moderated by the Great Lakes. so they tend to not have the snowfall.

        • furor kek tonicus ( proud to have a foreign policy that keeps Hunter's nose candied ) says:

          and you didn’t watch the video.
          he’s “heating” with buried drain tile. it’s a cheap heat pump with the only cost being electricity to run the fans.

          • Aeoli Pera says:

            These are real questions, not quibbling, I would like to be the Orange Juice Donald Trump King of Michigan:

            What’s the cost of drain tile, burying, and whatever maintenance one does for this method of heating? Does it require auxiliary heating? How does the temperature control work?

            • furor kek tonicus ( "fake and gay" is not redundancy, it's emphasis of the syllable ) says:

              there are vids on Youtube going in to more detail on his construction methods. and he helps plenty of people out in Nebraska so try getting ahold of him. he’ll probably answer your questions too.
              cost of tile
              non-perforated drain tile ( as well as perforated ) is available from any building supply store like Ace Hardware or Home Depot.
              cost of burying
              earth moving equipment of all types can be rented from a wide variety of places. if you like name brand stuff, McAllister Cat has a store in Byron Center. United Rentals and some hardware stores are other options. obviously, the bigger the machine the more expensive.
              they’ve got a 312C excavator which can direct dig to 19′ but you are talking about a 35,000 lb machine. you’re not going to tow that home behind your pick-em-up truck, that’s going to need a lowboy. if you happen to have sandy soil on your site, a wheeled front end loader could probably be used for the dig and would be the best option for back fill.
              if you know any farmers you can probably “borrow” the equipment from them for a nominal fee and fuel+basic maintenance.
              don’t forget to call 811 / whatever your local Call-Before-You-Dig number is, simply for liability purposes. you damn sure do NOT want to hit a fiber line, that can be a felony and fines over the 10s of thousands. and, of course, a gas or electric line can get you crispy crittered.
              uh. replace your box fans once in a while? plastic protected from sunlight is notorious for being practically indestructible. so as long as you don’t crush the tile ( preventing airflow ) i’m not sure what’s supposed to go wrong with the heat pump. don’t dig too deep and cause a balrog/volcano? that’s part of the reason he lays the tile out on something like 2-3′ centers. so you don’t concentrate too much weight directly onto the tile. also better heat exchange from the soil.
              the grow house will obviously be subject to all the normal maintenance costs and procedures associated with green houses in Michigan. i know there’s a bunch of above ground green houses out towards Grand Haven.
              temp control
              uh, thermostats have been around for hundreds of years. actuate a solenoid attached to a 120VAC outlet and leave the fan that’s plugged into that outlet switched on. that’s precisely what HVAC units are doing, just usually shifted ~35 degrees higher.
              perforated ( or joints, it’s not easy to get a good, permanent seal on drain tile like it is on Schedule 40 pvc ) would be a bad idea as you would get intrusion from water and soil even if you had a sock over it. if you fill the tile up with water you’re not going to be able to push air through. it would also cause a mold and bacteria issue.
              you need enough parallel tiles to flow the air necessary to maintain temps above freezing, air flow needed is thus going to be dependent on how big your grow room is and how good the insulation is.
              burial depth would be contingent on how deep your frost layer is, if you have one. Goog says “most of Michigan” has a permafrost depth of approx 42″ or round to 4 feet. call it 10′ down, 10′ back up, about 50′ run length and you’ve got 1-3′ of at each end that you can couple the runs to above ground. you may need to go deeper? obviously best would be to lay the tile runs parallel to the green house. so partially/mostly burying the grow room significantly aids room insulation and would also lower the elevation of the room connection. or maybe even bury the tile directly under the green house?
              the reason this sort of heat pump works for a grow house is because most plants are pretty tolerant of chilly temps right down to the hard cut off when they freeze. iirc, citrus actually gets sweeter in colder weather, so specifically for citrus you would probably want it to get down near 35 at night. otoh, the lower your designated ambient the less safety margin in a really deep cold snap or equipment failure.
              heat pumps don’t work so gud for home heat because no wants to walk around their house wearing 5 layers trying to be comfortable in 50ish degree temps.
              citrus isn’t a bad idea, but ginseng and saffron are higher value crops.

  5. MM says:

    AI day was shit, and the delivers missed.

    TSLA down big monday? Up to the cult.

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