Slightly more detailed 2023-2024 predictions discussion

Any luck thinking of your thing yet?

it’s gone to the winds
if it ever comes back i’ll write it down
it breaks the pattern of long walks to write down ideas when you have them but perhaps i should bite the bullet and get in the habit

Writing things down so important.

agreed. much easier to do so when one is already at a desk though

“it breaks the pattern of long walks to write down ideas when you have them but perhaps i should bite the bullet and get in the habit”

I have a trick for this. When you hit about five trains of thought you write down very brief anchor words in your phone.
Five is about the limit of my recall for that sort of thing.

ooooo…that’s a good one

Merry Christmas.
All right, ambitious prediction time.

I have enough confidence in our ability to pick out the dominant factor in a social phenomenon that we should be able to see about three steps ahead if we put in the effort. For an example of picking out the dominant factor, one of my normies recently asked if old people in Europe dying would be enough to cause unrest. I said “No, people fear being targeted more than they like old people.”
So we should be able to then map out the slippery slope and the eventual reaction by picking out the next dominant factor, and maybe the reaction to the reaction.
More than that, I think secondary factors will generally build up too much.
For an example playground, let’s restrict ourselves to GOP politics.
What happens next in the dumbest possible world?

trump wins the republican nomination on being the toughest on russia and the most pro-vaccine stance
call it “hyper-normie”
well, that couldn’t technically happen next year
are we restricted to just things possible in the next 12 months?

Not sure what’s an appropriate timescale.
If we’re shooting for three iterations…let’s say 8-month intervals leading up to the election.

works for me

I think what they do in the next 8 months is short-term economic pillaging (re: inflation, economic unrest) plus doubling down on distracting social issues.
The latter serves the former, so I’m basing this on the belief that the overriding concern of the ruling class is their sudden loss of profitability via stonks.
They couldn’t possibly make long-term decisions at this point, so they’ll do shorter-term cash grabs than before using the same toolkit as before because it’s all they know. The political side simply exists to enable this by suppressing peasant revolts.
And nothing will really matter to the election cycle until the very end anyway, because memories are short.
That means the 8 months following will be characterized by anger and stupidity, in that order.
The best contender for stupid social issues is black people shit and sex shit. People have shown no end of appetite for those so far.

trans is like the perfect storm of getting people worked up

I wonder if at some point it will be de facto illegal to talk about the state of the economy, as in insta-bans for saying “Covid” on YouTube, that sort of thing.
That feels likely.
Like insta-bans for saying “Shadowstats”.

yes, i can see a future where inflation officially recedes but unofficially stays hot, and youtube videos and whatnot thta mention it get “fact-checked”
still, this feels less likely to me

Yeah, it’s more of a stretch than saying this year will involve short-term pillaging and distraction.
The insta-bans are more likely a 2025, 2026 kind of prediction.

working to put my finger on why but i’m leaning towards two things: 1. slow inflation is less inflammatory than locking people in their homes and coercing them into taking new medical treatments and 2. there’s no longer a unified front for narrative control
hmmm…this is believable

How do you figure re: no. 2?

a full-scale war a few years down the line would be grounds for similar dramatic moves as the covid years

Right, it’ll be on the horizon, but locking everyone in their homes will put it off for 6 months, which is all the ruling class ever did.
It’ll be worse, but it’ll be LATER.

fair. climate change stuff might be a good avenue for it if they can get that momentum going
re 2, i do believe that whatever musk is really up to, he does represent to some unknowable but probably tangible degree, a split of some kind

You’re an optimist.

maybe. i’m not saying there’s NO chance that he’s just part of the coverrup for all this covid stuff

Oh, speaking of narrative control, I have an audiobook recommendation…
https://www.amazon.com/CIA-Organized-Crime-Illegal-Operations-ebook/dp/B01NAPBE60

he will, after all, have a big say in what the final narrative of all this is, and that’s a lot of power
still, it does look like he’s burning some bridges that will make it a lot harder to run some of the playbook in the future

We should do Musk as a topic unto himself, I have a bit to say there.
On the financial front, I expect that large corporations will be unwilling to accept the loss of their stonk profit centers (to the tune of 40% growth year-over-year or whatever crazy number it’s been lately). Just as likely, they’ll be UNABLE to absorb the loss.
So I predict bailouts will have to make up the difference, just direct payments from the government to keep the biggest companies afloat (particularly the more publicly visible ones and the most Jewish financial ones). Maybe that’s what’s already happening.
That means higher inflation than 2022.
That means a HUGE portion of the population is unable to make rent around Christmas next year.
We may actually hit hyperinflation by early 2024. I hope not…but that’s where this line of thought is taking me.
We may see stimulus checks become the major political topic of the election…I may even say “probably”.
That would be the normal reaction to the threat of peasant revolts.

it’s usually either that or calling out the gendarmes
but defunding the police really takes that option away…not that it ever actually happened but there are personnel shortages lots of plcaes
one could always call out the national guard, of course
but that’s also expensive, the military isn’t meeting their recruitment numbers, and if there is war fear in the next year, you don’t want to tie up your forces like that

“one could always call out the national guard, of course”

Right, TPTB are still quite capable of applying force when it serves them.

still, lot of assumptions in that comment. that’s guesswork, not analysis

Are you talking foreign war?
I don’t think that’s on the table in a serious way.

probably not in the timeframe we’re talking about

Lockheed will take a bailout if they get mad.
We’ll probably see an acceleration in the military purges though.

russia-ukraine has escalation risks but it sure looks to me like neither side wants to really ratchet it up
yeah, DIE stuff still has strong momentum

If you put the remaining military, national guard, and police forces together after all the purges and resignations, it’s still enough to be a police force.
Should probably actually run the numbers on that at some point…
Call that another topic.

they rescinded the vax mandate but i doubt they’ll be reinstating anyone, and they’ll find ways of administratively punishing anyone who still hasn’t been shot up
yeah, that needs a numeracy check
mathematical literacy: the grim reaper of ungrounded ideas

I think inflation is going to go from a big concern for smart people to an overriding concern for all people, so that’s the dominant factor of the next couple of years to which everything else will be a reaction.
We may even see the Taiwan invasion.
Hell…Russia might win the war in Ukraine.
We’ll drag this process out as long as we can and make it as bad as we can, so it’s not the end yet.
But TPTB may actually find themselves, for the first time in their lives, having to choose between two things that they want.
That will be interesting to watch from a distance, if nothing else.
May need to catch up on Sam Vaknin videos.

I’m more inclined to suggest that even unofficially, the rate of inflation will slow, but we’ll also have to contend with more frequent failures of infrastructure and this will be a more significant stressor [Ed: That was the American Sun take also, https://theamericansun.com/2022/12/30/predictions-and-links/%5D

I may go out on a limb and predict China-Taiwan war in 2024. There are only two things holding it back: 1) American consumers buying from China, and 2) American military intervention.

see power failures in various counties the past couple months, grocery stores being out of stock of random items…etc

https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2022/12/28/the-evernight-2

more like “general direct impacts of standard of living”
russia might still win in ukraine but depends on your definition of “win”

Talking about this in terms of Maslow’s hierarchy…how stubborn do you think various demographics are about competing for higher things as lower things become a concern?

I would say they win if they 1) hold eastern ukrainian territory, 2) achieve ukrainian demilitarization, and 3) keep ukraine out of nato

‘russia might still win in ukraine but depends on your definition of “win” ‘

Who gets to write the history books.
Admit it, that’s a great definition :-).

Pyrrhic victories are a thing
Yep, agreed lol
re: maslow that’s a fun question
self-actualization seems a young people thing…old people seem to give up on it entirely

You know what’s silly, I’ve never given myself a quick list of demographic identifiers for analysis.
E.g. Class, race, age, sex, religion, political views, IQ, big 5, etc.
I mean, I’ve gotten great mileage from MBTI in my personal life (particularly the functional analysis), but I don’t know that I’ve ever thought of “extraverted intuition” as a demographic.
Anyway, that aside, here’s a quickie list of demographics:
(We should argue over what are the best general predictors.)

  • IQ
  • Race
  • Class
  • Age
  • Sex
  • Religion
  • Personality (big 5)
  • Education
  • Life history strategy
  • Political orientation
  • Particular disabilities: mental illness, alcoholism, etc.
  • Income

For some reason I want to rank these in terms of predicting who’s most likely to attack you.
Anyway, add basic police-type stats and you’ve got a pretty good profile of a person.

lol

Oohhh…I just realized you might be able to backward engineer Amazon’s consumer model by scraping the suggestions they give you.
I got kinda lost in thought for a minute there.
Stamina ain’t what it used to be. I blame Christmas eating.
Yeah, I’m getting distracted. It’s about time to wrap up.
We can improve on our performance next time.

we’re also out of practice haha

Re: backward engineering, I think the math would end up being the same as IQ and big 5. It’s just cluster analysis…and I think that area is called structural equation modeling.
Like everything else, I’ve always wanted to waste some time learning that.
Someone needs to just pay me for existing.
That would solve a lot of problems.

gentleman scientist status confirmed
we must conslut the history books to identify your past life

About Aeoli Pera

Maybe do this later?
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2 Responses to Slightly more detailed 2023-2024 predictions discussion

  1. MM says:

    Albert Edwards, Zoltan Poszar, Michael Burry, Michael Hartnett, and other notables in the macro financial space have all predicted the following course of events:
    1. 2023 hard landing. Some are willing to bet on timing, such as Hartnett thinking that the low is spy 3k in H1 2023. I am very skeptical of that.
    Burry has stated that he thinks inflation may even be negative by H2 2023.
    2. Fed pivot ranging from H2 2023 to some time in 2024 (and a range of intensity- from rate cutting back to full QE- which is what the ‘pivot’ means to me- and to history as well as the ‘rate cut pivot’ has historically signaled much greater downside)
    3. Re-ignition of inflation post QE, and we have to go through all this shit once again AKA bubble is re-inflated, though it is more likely to be in commodities instead of tech according to both Hartnett and Poszar, to have to be popped once again once there are rioters outside the Eccles building because nobody can afford eggs and gas. Of course, things could just go full totalitarian when this happens in 2024/25/ wnvr. But more likely, they will try to settle the populace, as China and Russia have several ways they could absolutely disrupt western financials catastrophically, whether that be Petro Gold/Renmimbi for oil, invasion of taiwan, etc. and so TPTB may have to pick their narratives unless they start a giant war (which always gets “people” in line, very hardwired into the monkey brain). Also, that’s just their MO is to try the same dumb shit one more time- its rare for them to jump to something new without giving the old tricks their time first.

    (tldr- buy energy, gold miners, war, and commodities at the bottom, and get working on your farm and hole in the ground, and don’t yolo into trash when it starts exploding up because I personally don’t think the new bubble after the true monetary pivot will last a predictable length of time, and thus would not want to hold anything that is TRASH)

    Admittably, with a divided Congress, stimulus is hard to predict. Many think there won’t be more ‘bailouts’ from Congress until a crash, others aren’t so sure. There are good arguments for why they would or would not do either, and thus all that can be done is to update model of the future quickly in line with how this congress plays out its off to a great start! :) looks like they actually might not be able to do more helicopter money for at least a little while.

    Misc:
    A. War in Ukraine- Russia wins of course barring world war or magical peace thingy.
    S. The Fed is the big boy, not the companies, and the mantra is ‘don’t fight the fed’ for a reason. Lobbies may be powerful but they aren’t the fucking space octopus and thus not Powell’s true master.
    D. There is a chance Musk actually gets what’s coming to him.
    I appreciate the Twitter Files, but I am personally leaning towards the explanation for him doing it being “releasing just enough information hurtful to the establishment to make him being prosecuted for his many (alleged) financial crimes look like a witch hunt”.
    I am still short TSLA, though with the insane move down in it I decided to become more safely spread out, and just have more aggressive tsla put positions (because its either going back up alot, or MUCH more likely, down farther till ‘the real crash’ and VIX over 45, perhaps over 80). Also, news today- BBBY looks like it is about to go bankrupt as predicted here. Short homebuilders and tech (especially tech on a certain island). All 2025 LEAPS at mostly realistic strikes because conservative.
    Not advice, just autism.

    https://www.tme.net/blog/tesla-scandal/

  2. Post Alley Crackpot says:

    A thin A6 journal fits behind a phone in a pocket.

    Get a Fisher Space Pen or any Parker pen that can use the refills.

    Then get a waterproof journal, there’s a brand called “Rite in the Rain”, try those first.

    Now you can write down notes even when it’s wet.

    BUT WHAT ABOUT PEOPLE WHO DON’T USE POCKETS?

    People who don’t use pockets are not functional people.

    Don’t hang around those people and definitely don’t fuck them.

    They’re even shittier people than the people who don’t own books.

    Think about it. :-)

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