Two percent of women are worth the risk of marriage

You have heard it said, NAWALT, you can find a good girl if you’re a super-Alpha and you look in the right places. Both Vox and Free Northerner have proposed that, if you can find a high-religiosity, college-educated gal, chances are pretty good that she won’t accuse you of molesting the kids in court someday.

Looking at all this, it’s easy to see the two best determinates of her divorcing you are her education and whether she has had sex prior to marriage.

A bachelor’s degree is a 40-point decrease in the odds of divorce over a high school graduate.

A women having sex with one other partner is an instant 25-point increase in the odds of divorce, with another 10-point drop for a second partner, and another for a fifth. Related to this, her having sex before age 18 is another major risk factor. Marrying her before she’s 20 is also a risk factor, but not as great a one as her having had sex with someone else; if the choice is between a virgin under 20 and older non-virgin, the young virgin is less risky. Do not marry a slut.

Religion is important, but the most important part is less what religion, but rather how devout she is. An actively religious couple is generally a 20-point decrease in the chance of divorce than a non-active couple.

Marrying an Asian is a 15-point decrease in the odds of divorce. Marrying a black was the opposite.

If she had an intact family, that’s a 20-point decrease in the risk of divorce.

If you marry a virgin bride who’s over the age of 20, has an intact family, a college degree, and is a devout Christian, the chances of divorce are very low. If she’s also Asian, they’re even lower.

Also, make sure you earn a lot more than her, don’t be poor, don’t cohabitate before marriage, and don’t knock her up until marriage.

I can’t calculate the exact numbers by calculating all these odds together because a lot of these positive qualities overlap, but I consider myself justified in estimating, that the type of women I plan on marrying would have a statistical likelihood of divorcing me around 10%.

A 10% chance of divorce, even a 20% chance, while still higher than I’d like, is a risk I am willing to take.

Free Northerner
Sexonomics: Odds of Divorce

This is all well and good, but the question everyone is wondering is…how many girls actually fit this profile, in reality?

Even more noteworthy has been the decline in the proportion of women who get married having had only one sex partner (in most cases, their future husbands). Forty-three percent of women had just one premarital sex partner in the 1970s. By the aughts, this was down to 21 percent. Neither of these two trends changed much after the first decade of the twenty-first century. Following in the wake of the sexual revolution, the 1970s have been characterized as a decade of carnal exploration. But this doesn’t seem to have been the case for the vast majority of women who ultimately tied the knot in that decade: almost two-thirds of them had at most one sex partner prior to getting married. Even in the 1980s, slightly over half of women had a maximum of one sex partner before walking down the aisle. Things looked very different at the start of the new millennium.

By the 2010s, only 5 percent of new brides were virgins. At the other end of the distribution, the number of future wives who had ten or more sex partners increased from 2 percent in the 1970s to 14 percent in the 2000s, and then to 18 percent in the 2010s. Overall, American women are far more likely to have had multiple premarital sex partners in recent years…

Counterintuitive Trends in the Link Between Premarital Sex and Marital Stability

Let’s remind ourselves what the odds of divorce are for these demographics.

Number of prior sexual partners (p.18):

0: 20%
1: 46%
2-4: 56-60%
5-15: ~70%
16+: ~80%

Free Northerner
Sexonomics: Odds of Divorce

I don’t know how risk-averse you are, but only virgins look acceptable to me. So that restricts our search to one in twenty girls. How many of these virgins are physically healthy enough to fuck, drunk or otherwise? Well, it turns out BMI has a very weak relationship with number of sexual partners.

(Full disclosure: the study reports a modest correlation between BMI and N, but this is almost entirely due to outliers among the fatties. The biggest sluts are the biggest otherwise, as well. Perchance the biggest liars?)

What this means is that the virgins will have a BMI distribution roughly equivalent to the other girls in the study.

The percentages of men and women who fell into each category of the BMI CDC variable were underweight (<18.5; 2%), healthy weight (18.5–24.99; 39%), overweight (25–29.99; 37%), obese (30–39.99; 15%), and morbidly obese (40.0+; 7%).

Height and Body Mass on the Mating Market
Associations With Number of Sex Partners and Extra-Pair Sex Among Heterosexual Men and Women Aged 18–65

This means that approximately 40% of women are worth having sex with, aside from desperate dumpster diving ONSs. If the odds have you thinking you might go fatty fucking out of desperation, you can test your gag reflex with this BMI visualizer. 40% of 5% is 2%, so assuming you have zero standards for a wife other than being attracted to her and a less than 46% chance of divorce-rape, you’re looking at one in fifty.